中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所机构知识库(地理资源所机构知识库): The failure of China's Energy Development Strategy 2050 and its impact on carbon emissions

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	The failure of China's Energy Development Strategy 2050 and its impact on carbon emissions
	Fan J.; Wang, Q.; Sun, W.
Source Publication	Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews
	2015
Volume	49
Pages	1160-1170
Keyword	Energy Strategy Carbon Emissions China Renewable Energy Time-series Consumption Urbanization Demand Turkey
Abstract	China is the world's largest energy consumer and emitter of carbon. China's energy development strategy is thus of great significance to the world's energy security and global carbon reduction target. In this study, the implementation of "China's Energy Development Strategy 2050" (EDS2050), which has been in operation since 1985, is investigated. This study analyzes the causes of the failure of EDS2050 and the impacts of that failure on carbon emissions. The results show the following: (1) EDS2050 basically failed in 2010, and the strategic planning values of primary energy consumption and production were underestimated compared with the actual values by 39% and 67%, respectively. (2) Comparing the predicted values of basic parameters in EDS2050 with the actual values, in the production field, the main causes of failure were the underestimation of the economic growth rate and the proportion of non-agricultural industries, while in the living field, the main causes were the underestimation of urbanization and per capita energy consumption in rural areas. Further analyses of various provinces demonstrated that the major factors leading to EDS2050 failure include the economic growth rate, urbanization, population growth, and the growth in car ownership. (3) EDS2050 failure resulted in an increase in carbon emissions in 2010 of 583.50 x 10(6) tc, and increases of per capita carbon emissions reached 46.49-47.04%; carbon emissions per unit of output demonstrated a reduction, which was as a result of technological progress. Improving energy efficiency optimizing energy utilization, and promoting national energy conservation should be highly emphasized in China's future sustainable energy development strategy. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Indexed By	SCI
Language	英语
ISSN	1364-0321
DOI	10.1016/j.rser.2015.04.096
Citation statistics	Cited Times:20[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type	SCI/SSCI论文
Identifier	http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/38601
Collection	区域可持续发展分析与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 区域可持续发展分析与模拟院重点实验室_经济地理与区域发展研究室 历年回溯文献
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714	Fan J.,Wang, Q.,Sun, W.. The failure of China's Energy Development Strategy 2050 and its impact on carbon emissions. 2015.

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