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technological singularity: Information and Much More from Answers.com

️Tue Aug 07 2007

The technological singularity is the hypothesized creation, usually via AI or brain-computer interfaces, of smarter-than-human entities who rapidly accelerate technological progress beyond the capability of human beings to participate meaningfully in said progress. Futurists have varying opinions regarding the timing and consequences of such an event.

Vernor Vinge originally coined the term "singularity" in observing that, just as our model of physics breaks down when it tries to model the singularity at the center of a black hole, our model of the world breaks down when it tries to model a future that contains entities smarter than human.

I. J. Good first explored the idea of an "intelligence explosion", arguing that machines surpassing human intellect should be capable of recursively augmenting their own mental abilities until they vastly exceed those of their creators. Vernor Vinge later popularized the Singularity in the 1980s with lectures, essays, and science fiction. More recently, some AI researchers have voiced concern over the Singularity's potential dangers.

Some futurists, such as Ray Kurzweil, consider it part of a long-term pattern of accelerating change that generalizes Moore's law to technologies predating the integrated circuit. Critics of this interpretation consider it an example of static analysis.

The Singularity has also been featured prominently in science fiction works by a plethora of authors.

Intelligence explosion

In 1965, statistician I. J. Good wrote:

“

Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion,’ and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make.

”

—Good (1965).

Mathematician and author Vernor Vinge greatly popularized Good’s notion of an intelligence explosion in the 1980s, calling the creation of the first ultraintelligent machine the Singularity. Vinge first addressed the topic in print in the January 1983 issue of Omni magazine. He later collected his thoughts in the 1993 essay "The Coming Technological Singularity," which contains the oft-quoted statement "Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly thereafter, the human era will be ended." Vinge clarifies his estimate of the time scales involved, adding, "I'll be surprised if this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030."

Vinge writes that superhuman intelligences, however created, will be even more able to enhance their own minds faster than the humans that created them. “When greater-than-human intelligence drives progress,” Vinge writes, “that progress will be much more rapid.” This feedback loop of self-improving intelligence, he predicts, will cause large amounts of technological progress within a short period of time.

Most proposed methods for creating smarter-than-human or transhuman minds fall into one of two categories: intelligence amplification of human brains and artificial intelligence. The means speculated to produce intelligence augmentation are numerous, and include bio- and genetic engineering, nootropic drugs, AI assistants, direct brain-computer interfaces, and mind transfer. Despite the numerous speculated means for amplifying human intelligence, non-human artificial intelligence (specifically seed AI) is the most popular option for organizations trying to directly initiate the Singularity, a choice the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence addresses in its publication “Why Artificial Intelligence?”^[1]. Robin Hanson is also skeptical of human intelligence augmentation, writing that once one has exhausted the “low-hanging fruit” of easy methods for increasing human intelligence, further improvements will become increasingly difficult to find^[2]. Running contrary to this theory is the speculation of Kurzweil amongst others that a given increase in human intelligence would yield a proportionate increase in human understanding and insight, making fruit that seem unreachable by current standards appear low hanging to an increasingly intelligent being.

Potential dangers

Some speculate superhuman intelligences may have goals inconsistent with human survival and prosperity. AI researcher Hugo de Garis suggests AIs may simply eliminate the human race, and humans would be powerless to stop them. Other oft-cited dangers include those commonly associated with molecular nanotechnology and genetic engineering. These threats are major issues for both Singularity advocates and critics, and were the subject of a Wired magazine article by Bill Joy, "Why the future doesn't need us" (2000).

In a 2002 essay on human extinction scenarios, Oxford philosopher Nick Bostrom listed superintelligence as a possible cause:

“

When we create the first superintelligent entity, we might make a mistake and give it goals that lead it to annihilate humankind, assuming its enormous intellectual advantage gives it the power to do so. For example, we could mistakenly elevate a subgoal to the status of a supergoal. We tell it to solve a mathematical problem, and it complies by turning all the matter in the solar system into a giant calculating device, in the process killing the person who asked the question.

”

—Bostrom (2002).

Some AI researchers have made efforts to diminish what they view as potential dangers associated with the Singularity. The Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence is a nonprofit research institute for the study and advancement of Friendly Artificial Intelligence, a method proposed by SIAI research fellow Eliezer Yudkowsky for ensuring the stability and safety of AIs that experience Good's "intelligence explosion". AI researcher Bill Hibbard also addresses issues of AI safety and morality in his book Super-Intelligent Machines.

Isaac Asimov’s Three Laws of Robotics are one of the earliest examples of proposed safety measures for AI. The laws are intended to prevent artificially intelligent robots from harming humans. In Asimov’s stories, any perceived problems with the laws tend to arise as a result of a misunderstanding on the part of some human operator; the robots themselves shut down in the case of a real conflict. On the other hand, in works such as the film I, Robot, which was based very loosely on Asimov's stories, a possibility is explored in which AI take complete control over humanity for the purpose of protecting humanity from itself. In 2004, the Singularity Institute launched an Internet campaign called 3 Laws Unsafe^[3] to raise awareness of AI safety issues and the inadequacy of Asimov’s laws in particular.

Many Singularitarians consider nanotechnology to be one of the greatest dangers facing humanity. For this reason, they often believe seed AI (an AI capable of making itself smarter) should precede nanotechnology. Others, such as the Foresight Institute, advocate efforts to create molecular nanotechnology, claiming nanotechnology can be made safe for pre-Singularity use or can expedite the arrival of a beneficial Singularity.

Accelerating change

Some Singularity proponents argue its inevitability through extrapolation of past trends, especially those pertaining to shortening gaps between improvements to technology. In one of the first uses of the term singularity in the context of technological progress, Stanislaw Ulam cites accelerating change:

“

One conversation centered on the ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue.

”

—Ulam (1958), referring to a conversation with John von Neumann.

In Mindsteps to the Cosmos (HarperCollins, August 1983), Gerald S. Hawkins writes that "mindsteps", dramatic and irreversible changes to paradigms or world views, are accelerating in frequency as quantified in his mindstep equation. He cites the inventions of writing, mathematics, and the computer as examples of such changes.

Ray Kurzweil's analysis of history concludes that technological progress follows a pattern of exponential growth, following what he calls The Law of Accelerating Returns. He generalizes Moore's law, which describes geometric growth in integrated semiconductor complexity, to include technologies from far before the integrated circuit.

Whenever technology approaches a barrier, Kurzweil writes, new technologies will cross it. He predicts paradigm shifts will become increasingly common, leading to “technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history” (Kurzweil 2001). Kurzweil believes the Singularity will occur before the end of the 21st century, setting the date at 2045 (Kurzweil 2005). His predictions differ from Vinge’s in that he predicts a gradual ascent to the Singularity, rather than Vinge’s rapidly self-improving superhuman intelligence.

The Acceleration Studies Foundation, an educational nonprofit foundation founded by John Smart, engages in outreach, education, research and advocacy concerning accelerating change^[4]. It produces the Accelerating Change conference at Stanford University, and maintains the educational site Acceleration Watch.

Criticism of accelerating change

An article in The Economist^[5] spoofs predictions of accelerating progress, arguing through static analysis that disposable razors will have an infinite number of blades by 2015.

Theodore Modis and Jonathan Huebner argue, from different perspectives, that the rate of technological innovation has not only ceased to rise, but is actually now declining. John Smart has criticized Huebner's analysis.^[6] Some evidence for this is that computer clock speeds are slowing, however the number of cores is increasing and the cost of chips continues to fall. ^[7]

Others propose that other "singularities" can be found through analysis of trends in world population, world GDP, and other indices. Andrey Korotayev and others argue that historical hyperbolic growth curves can be attributed to feedback loops that ceased to affect global trends in the 1970s, and thus hyperbolic growth should not be expected in the future.

In "The Progress of Computing", William Nordhaus argues that prior to 1940, computers followed the much slower growth of a traditional industrial economy, thus rejecting extrapolations of Moore's Law to 19th century computers. Schmidhuber (2006) suggests differences in memory of recent and distant events create an illusion of accelerating change, and that such phenomena may be responsible for past apocalyptic predictions.

Some anarcho-primitivism and eco-anarchism advocates, such as John Zerzan and Derrick Jensen, see the Singularity as an orgy of machine control, and a loss of free existence outside of civilization. Author James John Bell expresses a cautionary environmentalist perspective on the Singularity in his essays Exploring The “Singularity”^[8]^[9] and Technotopia and the Death of Nature: Clones, Supercomputers, and Robots^[10].

Luddites opposed the industrial revolution out of concern for its effects on employment, and some oppose the Singularity on the same grounds. After the industrial revolution, however, child labor and labor of the over-aged declined dramatically. ^{[citation needed]} Henry Hazlitt argues that only drops in voluntary employment, not absolute employment, should be of concern.

Popular culture

In addition to the Vernor Vinge stories that pioneered Singularity ideas, several other science fiction authors have written stories that involve the Singularity as a central theme. Notable authors include William Gibson, Charles Stross, Karl Schroeder, Greg Egan, David Brin, Iain M. Banks, Neal Stephenson, Tony Ballantyne, Bruce Sterling, Dan Simmons, Damien Broderick, Fredric Brown, Jacek Dukaj, Nagaru Tanigawa and Cory Doctorow. Ken MacLeod describes the Singularity as “the Rapture for nerds” in his 1998 novel The Cassini Division. Singularity themes are common in cyberpunk novels, such as the recursively self-improving AI Wintermute in William Gibson’s novel Neuromancer. A 1994 novel published on Kuro5hin called The Metamorphosis of Prime Intellect depicts life after an AI-initiated Singularity. A more dystopian version is Harlan Ellison’s short story "I Have No Mouth and I Must Scream". Yet more examples are Accelerando by Charles Stross, and Warren Ellis’ ongoing comic book series newuniversal. Puppets All by James F. Milne explores the emotional and moral problems approaching Singularity.

Popular movies in which computers become intelligent and overpower the human race include Colossus: The Forbin Project, the Terminator series, I Robot and The Matrix. See also List of fictional computers.

Isaac Asimov expressed ideas similar to a post-Kurzweilian Singularity in his short story "The Last Question". Asimov's future envisions a reality where a combination of strong artificial intelligence and post-humans consume the cosmos, during a time Kurzweil describes as when "the universe wakes up", the last of his six stages of cosmic evolution as described in The Singularity is Near. Post-human entities throughout various time periods of the story inquire of the artificial intelligence within the story as to how entropy death will be avoided. The AI responds that it lacks sufficient information to come to a conclusion, until the end of the story when the AI does indeed arrive at a solution, and demonstrates it by re-creating the universe, in godlike speech and fashion, from scratch. Notably, it does so in order to fulfill its duty to answer the humans' question.

St. Edward's University chemist Eamonn Healy provides his own take on the Singularity concept in the film Waking Life. He describes the acceleration of evolution by breaking it down into “two billion years for life, six million years for the hominid, a hundred-thousand years for mankind as we know it” then describes the acceleration of human cultural evolution as being ten thousand years for agriculture, four hundred years for the scientific revolution, and one hundred fifty years for the industrial revolution. Information is emphasized as providing the basis for the new evolutionary paradigm, with artificial intelligence its culmination. He concludes we will eventually create “neohumans” which will usurp humanity’s present role in scientific and technological progress and allow the exponential trend of accelerating change to continue past the limits of human ability.

In his book The Artilect War, Hugo de Garis predicts a coming conflict between supporters of the creation of artificial intellects (or artilects), whom he refers to as "cosmists", and those who oppose the idea, who he refers to as "terrans". De Garis envisions a coming battle between these groups over the creation of artilects as being the last great struggle mankind will face before the Singularity.

Neal Asher's Gridlinked series features a future where humans living in the Polity are governed by AIs and while some are resentful, most believe that they are far better governors than any human. In the fourth novel, Polity Agent, it is mentioned that the singularity is far overdue yet most AIs have decided not to partake in it for reasons that only they know.

Notes

^ Why Artificial Intelligence. Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence (2005). Retrieved on failure August 7, 2007.
^ Hanson, Robin. Some Skepticism. Robin Hanson. Retrieved on 2007-08-07.
^ 3 Laws Unsafe. Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence. Retrieved on 2007-08-07.
^ ASF: About the Foundation. Acceleration Studies Foundation. Retrieved on 2007-08-07.
^ More blades good. The Economist (subscription required) (March 16 2006). Retrieved on 2007-08-07.
^ Smart, John (September 2005). On Huebner Innovation. Acceleration Studies Foundation. Retrieved on 2007-08-07.
^ Sutter, Herb (March 2005). The free lunch is over. Dr Dobb's Journal. Retrieved on 2007-09-19.
^ James John Bell (May 1 2003). Exploring The “Singularity”. The Futurist. World Future Society (mindfully.org). Retrieved on 2007-08-07.
^ James John Bell (June 1 2003). Exploring The “Singularity”. The Futurist. World Future Society (KurzweilAI.net). Retrieved on 2007-08-07.
^ Bell, James (Summer 2002). Technotopia and the Death of Nature: Clones, Supercomputers, and Robots. Earth Island Journal. Retrieved on 2007-08-07.

References

Broderick, Damien (2001). The Spike: How Our Lives Are Being Transformed by Rapidly Advancing Technologies. New York: Forge. ISBN 0-312-87781-1.
Bostrom, Nick (2002). "Existential Risks". Journal of Evolution and Technology 9. Retrieved on 2007-08-07.
Bostrom, Nick (2003). "Ethical Issues in Advanced Artificial Intelligence". Cognitive, Emotive and Ethical Aspects of Decision Making in Humans and in Artificial Intelligence 2: 12-17. Retrieved on 2007-08-07.
Good, I. J. (1965). "Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine". Advances in Computers 6: 31-88. Academic Press. Retrieved on 2007-08-07.
Heylighen F. (2007). "Accelerating Socio-Technological Evolution: from ephemeralization and stigmergy to the global brain" , in: "Globalization as an Evolutionary Process: Modeling Global Change", edited by G. Modelski, T. Devezas, and W. Thompson, London: Routledge
Johansen A. & Sornette D. (2001) "Finite-time singularity in the dynamics of the world population, economic and financial indices", Physica A 294, p. 465–502.
Joy, Bill (April 2000). "Why the future doesn’t need us". Wired Magazine (8.04). Retrieved on 2007-08-07.
Kurzweil, Raymond (2001). "The Law of Accelerating Returns". Lifeboat Foundation. Retrieved on 2007-08-07.
Kurzweil, Raymond (2005). The Singularity Is Near. New York: Viking. ISBN 0-670-03384-7.
Schmidhuber, Jürgen (June 29 2006). "New Millennium AI and the Convergence of History" (PDF). Retrieved on 2007-08-07.
Ulam, Stanislaw (May 1958). "Tribute to John von Neumann". Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society 64 (nr 3, part 2): 1-49.
Vinge, Vernor (1993). "The Coming Technological Singularity". Retrieved on 2007-08-07.

External links

Essays

Singularities and Nightmares: Extremes of Optimism and Pessimism About the Human Future by David Brin
“Meaning of Life FAQ” by Eliezer Yudkowsky
A Critical Discussion of Vinge’s Singularity Concept
Is a singularity just around the corner? by Robin Hanson
Brief History of Intellectual Discussion of Accelerating Change by John Smart
Encouraging a Positive Transcension
One Half of a Manifesto by Jaron Lanier—a critique of “cybernetic totalism”
One Half of an Argument—Kurzweil’s response to Lanier

Singularity AI projects

Portals and wikis

Fiction

The Metamorphosis of Prime Intellect—A 1994 novel by Roger Williams. It deals with the ramifications of a superpowerful computer that can alter reality after a technological singularity (warning: graphic content).

After Life by Simon Funk uses a complex narrative structure to explore the relationships among uploaded minds in a technological singularity.

[Message Contains No Recognizable Symbols] by Bill Hibbard is a story about a technological singularity subject to the constraint that natural human authors are unable to depict the actions and dialog of super-intelligent minds.

Games

Singularity by emhsoft