Trump’s return has officials in Japan preparing for the worst | The Asahi Shimbun Asia & Japan Watch

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba congratulated new U.S. President Donald Trump as he took office on Jan. 20 while Japanese officials expressed concerns about Trump's actions and demands in trade and defensive spending.

“I would like to work closely (with Trump) to further strengthen the Japan-U.S. relationship and realize a free and open Indo-Pacific region,” Ishiba said in a statement released after Trump's inauguration.

In addition, Ishiba told reporters at the prime minister’s office on Jan. 21, “Japan has its own national interests, and the United States has its own national interests. I would like to establish a relationship of trust through sincere discussions on how we can make the most of our bilateral relationship for world peace and the global economy.”

As for a summit with Trump, which has not yet been scheduled, Ishiba said, “I think a date will be set before too long.”

Ishiba also said that Trump's diplomatic approach “prioritizes bilateral talks over multilateral frameworks.”

Regarding Trump's inaugural address in Washington, Ishiba said, “It was ‘Make America Great Again’ itself.”

He said, “It has been standard practice for past presidents to speak of lofty ideals in their inaugural addresses, but Trump's speech was exactly what he had talked about during the campaign.”

TRUMP PULLS U.S. FROM PARIS CLIMATE ACCORD

Environment Minister Keiichiro Asao at a news conference on Jan. 21 expressed “regret” over Trump’s signing an executive order to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement climate change treaty.

Asao recognized the continued importance of U.S. involvement in the global fight against climate change and said that the ministry “will explore cooperation with the U.S. through various opportunities.”

He also said that the climate change issue “is a common challenge for humanity that cannot be postponed.”

“Regardless of the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, the importance of steadily implementing the Paris Agreement has not been undermined,” Asao stressed.

“We will continue to work on climate change measures without wavering, and contribute to the decarbonization of the world through our country's experience and technology,” he said.

FEAR IN FOREIGN MINISTRY

With the resurgence of Trump, who has placed the realization of his “America First” policy as his top priority and has been making “deals” with other countries, Japan, a major U.S. ally, could face tough demands.

Even before the inauguration ceremony took place, tensions were mounting within the Japanese government as the unpredictable four years of his second term in office neared.

A senior Foreign Ministry official did not hide a sense of crisis regarding the U.S. demands on Japan, saying, “There is a fear that the Trump administration could cause a great deal of trouble.”

Therefore, until just before the inauguration ceremony, Japanese officials based in the United States continued to gather information from the U.S. side until the very last minute to find out what kind of message Trump would deliver.

Ultimately, the government officials were relieved for the time being because Trump did not mention any policy directly referring to Japan in his inaugural address nor in his speeches at other rallies.

DAMAGE CONTROL IN PLACE

Even before Trump won the presidential election, the Japanese government held a series of secret “Trump countermeasures meetings.”

The team was led by Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, Takeo Akiba, a former National Security Secretariat chief, and other officials in charge of foreign affairs, economy, finance and defense.

The purpose of these meetings was to prepare for any eventuality that Trump might unleash.

The Japanese government is most alarmed by Trump's strong insistence on increased tariffs.

Trump has so far announced additional tariffs of 25 percent on Mexico and Canada and 10 percent on China.

Tariffs could be imposed on all countries, targeting certain “critical products” such as steel, aluminum, semiconductors and critical minerals.

Some U.S. media reports indicate that a declaration of a state of emergency is being considered in order to impose uniform tariffs.

A senior official at an economic agency confided, “If tariffs were uniform, the impact would be global and of little concern, but if tariffs were to be imposed on specific Japanese products, we would have to secure substitutes to make a deal, which would be a hardship.”

An official related to the economy ministry said, “Trump is consistent in his desire to bring jobs back to the U.S. and restore a strong America. But it is hard to predict what he will do to achieve this goal, because he (acts) on the spur of the moment.”

Trump may press Japan to negotiate a trade deal as he did in his first administration.

During his first term, Trump publicly declared his dissatisfaction with the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty and other issues, taking advantage of Japan's strong dependence on the United States in the security field, and attempted trade negotiations with Japan to his advantage.

A senior economy ministry official said, “It is difficult to predict which items (Trump) will target, but (he) will certainly insist on reducing the trade deficit.”

If this happens, the official said, “We will persuade him by explaining that Japanese companies are generating considerable employment through their investments in the United States.”

Meanwhile, in the security field, where the United States enjoys an overwhelming advantage over Japan, Trump is expected to demand further increases in defense spending from its ally, as well as an increase in the Japanese contribution to the cost of stationing U.S. forces in Japan, as he has done with NATO member nations.

A Japanese government official said that Japan has no choice but to “emphasize its steady efforts” by showing the U.S. that it will boost defense spending to 2 percent of the nation's gross domestic product in fiscal 2027.

Although there are still two years remaining until the expiration of the special agreement (from fiscal 2022 to fiscal 2026) on the cost of stationing troops in Japan, a senior Defense Ministry official is concerned that “if the Trump administration says anything, we will have to start talks as soon as possible.”

In any case, what Japanese officials are hoping for as a countermeasure against Trump is “for leaders of the U.S. and Japan to speak frankly and build a relationship of trust,” according to a senior Foreign Ministry official.

The Trump administration is characterized by its top-down decision-making.

For this reason, summit diplomacy is of the utmost importance, and the Japanese government hopes to quickly firm up the schedule for Ishiba’s visit to the United States, which officials have been making arrangements for the first half of February.

(This article was compiled from reports written by Shino Matsuyama, Akifumi Nagahashi and others.)