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Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018 - Nature

  • ️Tue Dec 10 2019

Data availability

The aggregated Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance data and estimated errors generated in this study are freely available at http://imbie.org and at the NERC Polar Data Centre, https://doi.org/10.5285/8D5FF221-A470-4CC1-B7C4-CBDF383554FC.

Code availability

The code used to compute and aggregate rates of ice sheet mass change and their estimated errors are freely available at https://github.com/IMBIE.

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Acknowledgements

This work is an outcome of the IMBIE supported by the ESA Climate Change Initiative and the NASA Cryosphere Program. A.S. was additionally supported by a Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award and the UK Natural Environment Research Council Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling.

Author information

Author notes

  1. A list of participants and their affiliations appears at the end of the paper

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK

    Andrew Shepherd, Kate Briggs, Anna E. Hogg, Ines Otosaka & Thomas Slater

  2. NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA

    Erik Ivins, Eric Rignot, Isabella Velicogna, Nicole Schlegel, Alex Gardner, Johan Nilsson, Matthieu Talpe & David Wiese

  3. Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA

    Eric Rignot, Isabella Velicogna, Geruo A, Yara Mohajerani, Jeremie Mouginot, Bernd Scheuchl & Tyler Sutterley

  4. Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA

    Ben Smith & Ian Joughin

  5. Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands

    Michiel van den Broeke, Brice Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, Melchior van Wessem & Bert Wouters

  6. Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham, UK

    Pippa Whitehouse & Grace Nield

  7. Institute of Environmental Geosciences, Université Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France

    Gerhard Krinner, Hubert Gallee & Jeremie Mouginot

  8. Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA

    Sophie Nowicki, Denis Felikson, Bryant Loomis & Scott Luthcke

  9. School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK

    Tony Payne

  10. Earth Science and Observation Center, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA

    Ted Scambos

  11. Department of Geography, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium

    Cécile Agosta & Xavier Fettweis

  12. Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen, Denmark

    Andreas Ahlstrøm, William Colgan & Kristian K. Kjeldsen

  13. Department of Geology, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA

    Greg Babonis & Beata Csatho

  14. DTU Space, National Space Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark

    Valentina R. Barletta, Rene Forsberg, Shfaqat Khan, Louise Sandberg Sørensen & Sebastian B. Simonsen

  15. Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark

    Anders A. Bjørk

  16. LEGOS, Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France

    Alejandro Blazquez

  17. College of Marine Sciences, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA

    Jennifer Bonin

  18. Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA

    Richard Cullather

  19. ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Italy

    Marcus E. Engdahl

  20. Mullard Space Science Laboratory, University College London, Holmbury St Mary, UK

    Lin Gilbert & Alan Muir

  21. School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK

    Noel Gourmelen

  22. Institute for Planetary Geodesy, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany

    Andreas Groh, Martin Horwath & Ludwig Schröder

  23. Daniel Guggenheim School of Aerospace Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA

    Brian Gunter

  24. School of Geography, University of Lincoln, Lincoln, UK

    Edward Hanna

  25. Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA

    Christopher Harig

  26. Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany

    Veit Helm, Ingo Sasgen & Ludwig Schröder

  27. Institute of Astronomical and Physical Geodesy, Technical University Munich, Munich, Germany

    Alexander Horvath

  28. GeoGenetics, Globe Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark

    Kristian K. Kjeldsen

  29. Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany

    Hannes Konrad

  30. Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark

    Peter L. Langen & Ruth Mottram

  31. Department of Physics and Physical Oceanography, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    Benoit Lecavalier & Lev Tarasov

  32. Lancaster Environment Centre, University of Lancaster, Lancaster, UK

    Malcolm McMillan

  33. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy

    Daniele Melini

  34. Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre, Bergen, Norway

    Sebastian Mernild

  35. Faculty of Engineering and Science, Western Norway University of Applied Sciences, Sogndal, Norway

    Sebastian Mernild

  36. Direction of Antarctic and Sub-Antarctic Programs, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile

    Sebastian Mernild

  37. Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway

    Sebastian Mernild

  38. School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK

    Philip Moore

  39. isardSAT, Barcelona, Catalonia

    Gorka Moyano & Mark E. Pattle

  40. ENVEO, Innsbruck, Austria

    Thomas Nagler, Helmut Rott & Jan Wuite

  41. Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

    W. Richard Peltier

  42. Center for Space Research, University of Texas, Austin, TX, USA

    Nadège Pie & Himanshu Save

  43. Institute of Geodesy and Geoinformation, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany

    Roelof Rietbroek

  44. Department of Space Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands

    Ernst Schrama & Wouter van der Wal

  45. Department of Earth Science Education, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea

    Ki-Weon Seo

  46. Dipartimento di Scienze Pure e Applicate, Università di Urbino “Carlo Bo”, Urbino, Italy

    Giorgio Spada

  47. Department of Civil Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands

    Wouter van der Wal & Bert Wouters

  48. Geodetic Institute, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany

    Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma

  49. Department of Computer Science, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK

    David Wilton

  50. NASA Headquarters, Washington, DC, USA

    Thomas Wagner

Consortia

The IMBIE Team

  • Andrew Shepherd
  • , Erik Ivins
  • , Eric Rignot
  • , Ben Smith
  • , Michiel van den Broeke
  • , Isabella Velicogna
  • , Pippa Whitehouse
  • , Kate Briggs
  • , Ian Joughin
  • , Gerhard Krinner
  • , Sophie Nowicki
  • , Tony Payne
  • , Ted Scambos
  • , Nicole Schlegel
  • , Geruo A
  • , Cécile Agosta
  • , Andreas Ahlstrøm
  • , Greg Babonis
  • , Valentina R. Barletta
  • , Anders A. Bjørk
  • , Alejandro Blazquez
  • , Jennifer Bonin
  • , William Colgan
  • , Beata Csatho
  • , Richard Cullather
  • , Marcus E. Engdahl
  • , Denis Felikson
  • , Xavier Fettweis
  • , Rene Forsberg
  • , Anna E. Hogg
  • , Hubert Gallee
  • , Alex Gardner
  • , Lin Gilbert
  • , Noel Gourmelen
  • , Andreas Groh
  • , Brian Gunter
  • , Edward Hanna
  • , Christopher Harig
  • , Veit Helm
  • , Alexander Horvath
  • , Martin Horwath
  • , Shfaqat Khan
  • , Kristian K. Kjeldsen
  • , Hannes Konrad
  • , Peter L. Langen
  • , Benoit Lecavalier
  • , Bryant Loomis
  • , Scott Luthcke
  • , Malcolm McMillan
  • , Daniele Melini
  • , Sebastian Mernild
  • , Yara Mohajerani
  • , Philip Moore
  • , Ruth Mottram
  • , Jeremie Mouginot
  • , Gorka Moyano
  • , Alan Muir
  • , Thomas Nagler
  • , Grace Nield
  • , Johan Nilsson
  • , Brice Noël
  • , Ines Otosaka
  • , Mark E. Pattle
  • , W. Richard Peltier
  • , Nadège Pie
  • , Roelof Rietbroek
  • , Helmut Rott
  • , Louise Sandberg Sørensen
  • , Ingo Sasgen
  • , Himanshu Save
  • , Bernd Scheuchl
  • , Ernst Schrama
  • , Ludwig Schröder
  • , Ki-Weon Seo
  • , Sebastian B. Simonsen
  • , Thomas Slater
  • , Giorgio Spada
  • , Tyler Sutterley
  • , Matthieu Talpe
  • , Lev Tarasov
  • , Willem Jan van de Berg
  • , Wouter van der Wal
  • , Melchior van Wessem
  • , Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma
  • , David Wiese
  • , David Wilton
  • , Thomas Wagner
  • , Bert Wouters
  •  & Jan Wuite

Contributions

A.S. and E.I. designed and led the study. E.R., B.S., M.v.d.B., I.V. and P.W. led the IOM, altimetry, SMB, gravimetry and GIA experiments, respectively. G.K., S.N., T.P. and T. Scambos provided additional supervision on glaciology, K.B., A.H., I.J., M.E.E. and T.W. provided additional supervision on satellite observations and N.S. provided additional supervision on GIA. G.M., M.E.P. and T. Slater performed the mass balance data collation and analysis. T. Slater performed the AR5 data analysis. P.W. and I.S. performed the GIA data analysis. M.v.W. and T. Slater performed the SMB data analysis. A.S., E.I., K.B., M.E., N.G., A.H., H.K., M.M., I.O., I.S., T. Slater, M.v.W. and P.W. wrote the manuscript. A.S. led the writing, E.I., K.B., M.E., and T. Slater led the drafting and editing, M.v.W. led the SMB text, P.W. and I.S. led the GIA text and N.G., A.H., H.K., M.M. and I.O. contributed elsewhere. A.S., K.B., H.K., G.M., M.E.P, I.S., S.B.S., T. Slater, P.W. and M.v.W. prepared the figures and tables, with particular focus on Fig. 1 (S.B.S), Fig. 3 (T. Slater), Fig. 4 (T. Slater), Extended Data Fig. 2 (K.B.), Extended Data Fig. 3 (P.W.), Extended Data Fig. 2 (M.v.W.), Extended Data Table 1 (P.W. and I.S.), Extended Data Table 2 (M.v.W.) and Supplementary Table 1 (H.K. and T. Slater). G.M. and M.E.P. led the production of all other figures and tables. All authors participated in the data interpretation and commented on the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Andrew Shepherd.

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Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Peer review information Nature thanks Christina Hulbe, Andreas Kääb and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Extended data figures and tables

Extended Data Fig. 1 Ice sheet mass balance datasets.

a, Participant datasets used in this study and their main contributors. b, The number of data available in each calendar year. The interval 2003–2010 includes almost all datasets and is selected as the overlap period. Further details of the satellite observations used in this study are provided in Supplementary Table 1. Refs. 28, 33, 38, 56, 59,60,61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,69,70,71, 82,83,84,85,86,87,88,89,90.

Extended Data Fig. 2 Greenland Ice Sheet drainage basins.

a, b, Basin used in this study, according to the definitions of ref. 20 (a) and ref. 37 (b).

Extended Data Fig. 3 Modelled glacial isostatic adjustment in Greenland.

a, b, Bedrock uplift rates in Greenland averaged over the GIA model solutions used in this study (a) and their standard deviation (b). Further details of the GIA models used in this study are provided in Extended Data Table 1. High rates of uplift and subsidence associated with the former Laurentide Ice Sheet are apparent to the southwest of Greenland.

Extended Data Fig. 4 SMB of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

a–f, Time series of SMB in the NW, CW, SW, SE, NE and NO Greenland Ice Sheet drainage basins (Extended Data Fig. 2)108,109. Solid lines are annual averages of the monthly data (dashed lines). Further details of the SMB models used in this study are provided in Extended Data Table 2.

Extended Data Fig. 5 Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance intracomparison.

a–c, Individual rates of Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance used in this study as determined from satellite altimetry (a), gravimetry (b) and the input–output method (c). The grey shading shows the estimated 1σ (dark), 2σ (mid-) and 3σ (light) uncertainty relative to the ensemble average. Refs. 28,33,38,56,59,60,61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,69,70,71,82,83,84,85,86,87,88,89,90.

Extended Data Fig. 6 Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance intercomparison.

Rate of Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance as derived from the three techniques: satellite radar and laser altimetry (red), input–output method (blue) and gravimetry (green). Their arithmetic mean is shown in grey. The estimated uncertainty is also shown (shaded envelopes) and is computed as the root mean square of the component time-series errors.

Extended Data Fig. 7 Cumulative Greenland Ice Sheet SMB.

The cumulative surface mass change determined from an average (mean) of the RACMO2.3p246, MARv3.621 and HIRHAM9 regional climate models relative to their 1980–1990 means (see Methods). The estimated uncertainty of the mean change is also shown (shaded area), computed as the average of the uncertainties from each of the three models. RACMO2.3p2 uncertainties are based on a comparison to in situ observations33. MARv3.6 uncertainties are evaluated from the variability due to forcing from climate reanalyses21. HIRHAM uncertainties are estimated on the basis of comparisons to in situ accumulation and ablation data110. Cumulative uncertainties are computed as the root sum square of annual errors, on the assumption that these errors are not correlated over time17.

Extended Data Table 1 Details of GIA models used in this study

Full size table

Extended Data Table 2 Details of the SMB models used in this study

Full size table

Extended Data Table 3 Rate of Greenland Ice Sheet mass change for 2005–2015

Full size table

Supplementary information

Supplementary Table 1 | Details of satellite datasets used in this study.

This file contains: 1.1 Data sets and methods employed by participants of the gravimetry experiment group; 1.2 Data sets and methods employed by participants of the radar and laser altimetry experiment group; 1.3 Data sets and methods employed by participants of the mass budget experiment group; and Supplementary References.

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The IMBIE Team. Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018. Nature 579, 233–239 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1855-2

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  • Received: 15 August 2019

  • Accepted: 25 November 2019

  • Published: 10 December 2019

  • Issue Date: 12 March 2020

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1855-2