European Union’s Plunging Birthrates Spread Eastward (Published 2006)

PRAGUE — Pushing their newborns in strollers along Na Prikope, Prague’s main shopping street, Jelena Heitmankova and her two friends get emotional as they describe their desire for more children. But, although they’re only nearing 30, they know their broods will probably end with the one child each has now.

“Having children here is expensive, and there is no structure: no services, no baby-sitting,” said Ms. Heitmankova, who is on maternity leave. “It would be nice if there were still nurseries, like when I was a child,” she said, referring to free Communist-era child care.

After a long decline, birthrates in European countries have reached a historic low, as potential parents increasingly opt for few or no children. European women, better educated and integrated into the labor market than ever before, say there is no time for motherhood and that children are too expensive anyway.

The result is a continent of lopsided societies where the number of elderly increasingly exceeds the number of young — a demographic pattern that is straining pension plans and depleting the work force in many countries.

The European Union’s executive arm, alarmed by the trend, estimates that, if birthrates remain this low, the bloc will have a shortfall of 20 million workers by 2030.

Immigration from non-European countries, already a highly contentious issue in much of the European Union, would not fill the gap even if Europe’s relatively homogenous countries were willing to embrace millions of foreign newcomers, experts say.