Recent Quotations: OnTheIssues Presidential, Gubernatorial, and Congressional Candidates

President Trump likes to refer to Canada as "the 51st state." What would Canada joining the Union actually do to American politics? Answer: The Democrats would immediately take control of the House of Representatives, and would be guaranteed the House majority and Speakership until 2032, and probably afterwards too. How come? Well, it's all in the Constitution and U.S. legal history....

Canada's population is just over 40 million, about the same as California's, which entitles Canada to 52 Representatives, the same as California. The number of seats in the House, currently 435, would temporarily increase to 487. The increase would stick until the 2030 decennial census; the 2032 election would reapportion all House seats nationwide, to reduce Canada's seats, and California's seats, to about 46 each, while reducing the number of House seats in dozens of other states.

Seizing the House majority assumes that the majority of Canada's Representatives would join the Democratic caucus. That assumption comes from the makeup of Canada's current House of Commons, which has 126 conservative members and 212 liberal members. Splitting Canada's 52 U.S. House seats in that same ratio means 19 would caucus with the House Republicans, and 33 would caucus with the House Democrats.

The current partisan split in the 435-seat U.S. House is 220 Republicans and 215 Democrats . With the Canadian addition, the 487-seat U.S. House would have 239 Republicans and 248 Democrats. That flips a 5-seat Republican majority to a 9-seat Democratic majority. That sort of systemic majority would be hard to overcome in the elections of 2026, 2028, or 2030.

A Democratic majority in the House means the current Speaker, Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) would be replaced by Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), the current Minority Leader. And all Committee chairs -- currently all Republicans -- would be replaced by Democratic Committee chairs. Those chairs set the agenda in each Committee, and hence decide which bills get heard or not. President Trump's agenda needs the House to introduce and hear bills -- Democrats would then have a powerful blocking mechanism.

Why do we say "Democrats would IMMEDIATELY take control"? Because there would be 52 special elections, in each district of the new state of Canada. After special elections, the winner is seated immediately -- there's no delay until the next January. Each winner would be up for re-election in November 2026, but they would be full members of Congress in the intervening time. Canadians have a strong incentive to hold the 52 special elections as soon as possible after Canada is declared a state -- something like a one-month campaign -- certainly NOT a long delay until 2026.

You can look to history to see how this occurred the last time new states were admitted to the Union -- that's Alaska and Hawaii in 1959. Alaska was admitted to the Union on Jan. 3, 1959, and its first Representative, Ralph Rivers (D-AK), was elected that same day. Hawaii was admitted to the Union on Aug. 21, 1959, and its first Representative, Daniel Inouye (D-HI), was elected that same day. Those Representatives were both re-elected in the November 1960 general election, the only U.S. House election in history to elect 437 members. In 1962, reapportionment from the 1960 census took effect, and the number of Representatives was reduced back to 435, where it has held since.

Astute observers might look at the physical size of the Congressional office buildings, where each of the 535 members of the House and Senate have office space. A sudden increase to 589 members suggests that the campaign slogan of the new Canadian members of Congress might be, "Where would we all sit, eh?"

Following are the races we're covering for elections in November 2025, plus some early candidate declarations for 2026:
• 2026 CA Governor: Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D) vs. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D, L.A.)vs. Former Rep. Katie Porter (D)
• 2025 Oakland CA Mayor: Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA-12) vs. City Councilor Loren Taylor (District 6)
• 2026 KY Senate: Former Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R) vs. Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY-6) vs. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY-4) vs. State Rep. Minority Leader Pamela Stevenson (D)
• 2026 LA Senate: Governor Bill Cassidy (R, incumbent) vs. State Treasurer John Fleming (R-LA-4)
• 2026 MI Senate: Senator Gary Peters (D, retiring) vs. DOT Secretary / Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D, South Bend) vs. 2022 Gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon (R)
• 2026 MN Senate: Senator Tina Smith (DFL, retirign) vs. 2024 Senate nominee Royce White (R) vs. State Attorney General Keith Ellison (D-MN-5) vs. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan
• 2025 NJ Governor Democratic Primary: Mayor Steven Fulop (D, Jersey City) vs. Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ-5) vs. Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ-11) vs. Mayor Ras Baraka (D, Newark)
• 2025 NJ Governor Republican Primary: Former State Rep. Jack Ciattarelli (R) vs. State Sen. Minority Leader Jon Bramnick (R)
• 2026 NM Governor: Interior Secretary Deb Haaland vs.
• 2025 NYC NY Mayor: Eric Adams (D, incumbent) vs. Former Governor Andrew Cuomo (D)
• 2026 OH Governor: CEO Vivek Ramaswamy (R) vs. Former Rep. Tim Ryan (D)
• 2026 PA Governor: Governor Josh Shapiro (D, incumebnt) vs. State Sen. Doug Mastriano (R) vs. 2022 Gubernatorial nominee Ken Krawchuk (L)
• 2025 VA Governor Democratic Primary: Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) vs. Rep. Bobby Scott (D)
• 2025 VA Governor Republican Primary: State Sen. Amanda Chase (R) vs. Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R)
• 2026 TN Governor: Governor Bill Lee (R, term-limited) vs. Rep. John Rose (R) vs. Former Rep. Jim Cooper (D)

Where do the candidates stand on Syria? The rebellion wasn't part of the 2024 election campaign, but many candidates and incoming Trump Administration officials have offered opinions over the many years of the Syrian Civil War. First some background (with links for more details) then the candidates' views:

• Bashar al-Assad: The President of Syria fled the country on Dec. 8, 2024, when rebels took the capital, Damascus. Assad was in power since 2000, when his father died.
• Syrian Civil War: The Assad regime almost fell in 2014, after three years of civil war. Russia and Iran came to Assad's aid, and have been aiding the Syrian regime ever since. But Russia was busy with the Ukraine war and could not aid Assad in 2024.
• Iran and Hezbollah: Iran aided Assad through "proxies", primarily Hezbollah in Lebanon, but Hezbollah was weakened by their involvement in the Israel-Gaza war.
• Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS): The lead rebel group is called HTS, which means "Organization for the Liberation of the Levant." HTS was originally an offshoot of Al Qaeda.
• Kurdish and Turkish rebel groups: HTS initiated the 2024 rebellion, but were joined by several other rebel groups. The largest are the Kurds in the east (on the Syria-Iraq border) and Turkish-supported rebels in the north (on the Syria-Turkey border).
• Al-Tanf United States military base:: U.S. troops have been in Syria since 2016; we invaded Syria as part of the Iraq-ISIS-Caliphate war. The U.S. has bombed ISIS sites in Syria, since 2023 and currently continuing. U.S. troops did not otherwise participate in the 2024 rebellion, and President-elect Trump has indicated he wants to keep it that way.

JD VANCE: Trump said "no" when a lot of them wanted a ridiculous war including Syria (Oct 2024)
Kamala HARRIS: US-Iraq partnership role after Defeat ISIS coalition (Feb 2024)
Donald TRUMP: I beat ISIS in literally three months; knocked them out (Jan 2024)
Nikki HALEY: Go hard after Iranian infrastructure in Syria & Iraq (Dec 2023)
Donald TRUMP: Withdrew from Syria, but left soldiers to keep the oil (Feb 2020)
Tulsi GABBARD: End the regime change war in Syria (Oct 2019)
Tulsi GABBARD: Indefinite stay in Syria IS "endless war" (Oct 2019)
Mike HUCKABEE: Eradicate ISIS like you would eradicate any cancer (Jan 2016)
Bernie SANDERS: Work with Russia & Iran to get rid of Assad in Syria (Jan 2016)
Chris CHRISTIE: There'll be no peace in Syria while Assad is in charge (Jan 2016)
Marco RUBIO: Boots on ground in Syria; coordinate with Kurds (Nov 2015)
Mike HUCKABEE: We are at war with radical Islam (Nov 2015)
Kristi NOEM: Aid the Syrian opposition with training & equipment (Sep 2014)
Marco RUBIO: Equip and train non-jihadist Syrians to topple Assad (Aug 2013)
Joe BIDEN: Syria's Assad must go, but carefully vet who gets aid (Mar 2013)
Joe BIDEN: Iran is isolated, and will be more so when Syria falls (Dec 2011)

We predict a victory for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in both the popular vote and the electoral vote. But we make no prediction about the actual outcome of the presidential election, because that will be up to the "judicial vote," which has been the most relevant factor in the presidential election since "Bush v. Gore" in 2000. We base this prediction on the actions of the Harris/Walz campaign (which has focused on winning the electoral vote) compared to the actions of the Trump/Vance campaign (which has focused on minimizing their popular vote loss, and on winning the judicial vote)....

The Harris/Walz campaign has focused on winning the electoral vote by reaching out beyond voters who are already likely to vote Democratic on Nov. 5:
• Kamala has appeared on numerous podcasts that reach young voters, and other groups who have traditionally low voter turnout rates. The Democrats are counting on young voters preferring Democrats, or at least preferring the candidate who has reached out to them.
• The Harris/Walz campaign has reached out to minority voters, through proxies such as Barack Obama. Minority voters -- especially immigrants -- have been targeted by Republican "voter suppression" efforts, and the Democratic campaign strategy is to overwhelm those with voter volume.
• Kamala has reached out to Republican "Never-Trumpers" extensively -- by emphasizing moderate stances on issues such as Israel and fracking -- and by making joint media appearances with Liz Cheney (R-WY) and others. This group includes millions of what were called "Double-Haters" in the Trump-Biden race -- the Democrats' goal is that they say "Kamala is acceptable because she'll support democracy even though I disagree with her on most other issues."
• Each of the above strategies seems likely to gain millions of votes, and we predict that will make a decisive difference in several swing states, where both Harris and Walz have focused their attention.

The Trump/Vance campaign has focused on turnout from their core supporters; maximizing their popular vote; and preparing for the "judicial vote" after November 5:

• Trump and Vance have emphasized pro-isolationist and anti-immigrant policies in all campaign appearances -- those are popular stances among MAGA groups, and generally have majority support in all but the most liberal "blue" states. This contrasts the Harris/Walz strategy of emphasizing moderate stances. Keeping MAGA supporters involved doesn't add to votes (because they would have voted Republican anyway) but does prepare for thousands of supporters to show up for post-election events such as the January 6, 2025 certification count.
• Trump has made numerous campaign appearances in New York and California and other "blue states." Why Trump follows this counter-intuitive strategy is obvious from his statements following the 2020 election: Trump noted repeatedly that he got more popular votes (74 million) than any other sitting president -- and challenged many of Biden's 81 million votes. Trump's strategy in 2024 is to reduce the popular vote loss from the 2020 difference of 7 million -- so that he can claim he did better than in 2020, and therefore his supporters should push for a "judicial vote" in his favor.
• The Trump/Vance campaign has invested heavily in preparatory lawsuits on every aspect of voting in every swing state -- and more lawsuits can be expected after November 5. The goal is to apply "lessons learned" from 2021, and question enough swing state certifications so that the Electoral College certification on Jan. 6 2025 goes to a House vote. Trump/Vance will certainly win a House vote because each state gets an equal number of votes, and the majority of states are Republican.
• Even if our electoral vote prediction is accurate, Trump could be elected President by successfully questioning the Electoral certification in enough states to overcome Trump's electoral vote deficit. All of the above strategies focus on Trump/Vance winning the "judicial vote" and the outcome of dozens of lawsuits is so dependent on judges' whims that the outcome cannot be predicted.