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@article{vanGruisen2020TheEW,
title={The Early Warning System and policymaking in the European Union},
author={Philippe van Gruisen and Martijn Huysmans},
journal={European Union Politics},
year={2020},
volume={21},
pages={451 - 473},
url={https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:219512601}
}Does the Early Warning System alert the European Commission about the prospects of passing new policy? We present a model of European Union policymaking in which the Early Warning System plays an important signalling role. In our model, the Commission uses signals from the Early Warning System to update its belief about governments’ voting strategies in the Council. The Commission may then anticipate difficult negotiations by withdrawing its proposal early. We find empirical evidence for our…