Bradley effect
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The Bradley effect, sometimes called the Wilder effect, is a concept that attempts to explain discrepancies between voter opinion polls and outcomes in elections where white candidates campaign against minority candidates. Adherents of the Bradley effect believe that some voters will tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a minority candidate but will vote against the minority candidate on Election Day. It was named for Tom Bradley, an African-American candidate who lost the 1982 California gubernatorial race despite having a lead in the polls going into the election.[1][2][3][4][5]
A related concept is social desirability bias, which describes the tendency of individuals to "report inaccurately on sensitive topics in order to present themselves in the best possible light." According to New York University professor Patrick Egan, "Anyone who studies survey research will tell you one of the biggest problems we encounter is this notion of social desirability bias." Some researchers and pollsters theorize that a number of white voters may give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they will open themselves to criticism of racial motivation.[6][7][8]
Some analysts have dismissed the Bradley effect theory; others have argued that it has played a diminishing role in recent elections. One analysis of 180 Senate and gubernatorial elections between 1989 and 2006 suggested that "before 1996, the median gap [in public polling data and actual vote share] for black candidates was 3.1 percentage points, while for subsequent years it was -0.3 percentage points."[9][10]
See also
Footnotes
- ↑ Washington Monthly, "East Coast Bias Watch," July 23, 2008
- ↑ Buffalo News, Does McCall Have A Chance?" January 20, 2002
- ↑ Time, "Press:Fighting the Last War," November 15, 1982
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "The Persistent Myth of the Bradley Effect," August 11, 2008
- ↑ RealClearPolitics, "The Bradley Effect - Selective Memory," October 13, 2008
- ↑ Sacramento Bee, "California poll on Proposition 8 could show 'Bradley effect,'" October 9, 2008
- ↑ KCBS, "Could Bradley Effect Change November Election?" October 9, 2008
- ↑ Psychology Concepts, "Social Desirability Bias," accessed June 21, 2016
- ↑ Real Clear Politics, "The Bradley Effect-selective memory," October 13, 2008
- ↑ The Journal of Politics, "No more Wilder Effect, never a Whitman Effect: When and why polls mislead about black and female candidates," accessed November 20, 2013
