Idaho State Senate elections, 2016
| 2016 Idaho Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Primary | May 17, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Elections |
|---|
| Choose a chamber below: |
All 35 seats in the Idaho State Senate were up for election in 2016. Republicans gained one seat in the November 2016 general election.
HIGHLIGHTS
Introduction
Elections for the Idaho State Senate were held in 2016. The primary election took place on May 17, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was March 11, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Idaho State Senate:
| Idaho State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 7 | 6 | |
| Republican Party | 28 | 29 | |
| Total | 35 | 35 |
Retired incumbents
Two incumbent senators did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Curt McKenzie |  Republican |
Senate District 13 |
| Roy Lacey |  Democratic |
Senate District 29 |
2016 election competitiveness
Idaho sees a dip in electoral competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Idaho performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Idaho State Senate, there were seven Democratic incumbents and 28 Republican incumbents. No incumbents faced primary challengers in the Democratic Party. Five primary challenges took place in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there were 14 Democratic incumbents and 56 Republican incumbents. One state representative faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were 25 primary challenges in the Republican Party.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Idaho can be found below.
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 Idaho Senate candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District |  Democrat
|
 Republican
|
Other |
| 1 | Steve Tanner: 5,365 | Shawn Keough: 17,264 (I)  |
|
| 2 | No candidate | Steve Vick: 20,240 (I) |
|
| 3 | No candidate | Robert Nonini: 16,990 (I) |
|
| 4 | Kristi Milan: 7,793 | Mary Souza: 13,233 (I) |
|
| 5 | Dan Schmidt: 10,939 (I) | Dan Foreman: 11,275 |
|
| 6 | No candidate | Dan Johnson: 16,722 (I) |
|
| 7 | Ken Meyers: 5,071 | Carl G. Crabtree: 14,318 |
|
| 8 | No candidate | Steven Thayn: 16,015 (I) |
Kirsten Faith Richardson: 4,826 (Constitution) |
| 9 | Carol Bogue: 3,642 | Abby Lee: 14,370 (I) |
|
| 10 | Ydalia Yado: 4,524 | Jim Rice: 9,762 (I) |
|
| 11 | Patricia Day Hartwell: 3,302 | Patti Anne Lodge: 14,206 (I) |
Gregory L. Collett: 2,048 (Ind.) |
| 12 | Chelle Gluch: 4,412 | Todd Lakey: 11,672 (I) |
|
| 13 | Carl Davis: 5,055 | Jeff C. Agenbroad: 12,439 |
|
| 14 | Miranda Gold: 7,903 | Marv Hagedorn: 19,011 (I) |
|
| 15 | Laura Metzler: 8,203 | Fred S. Martin: 10,580 (I) |
|
| 16 | Grant Burgoyne: 11,360 (I) |
Ryan McDonald: 8,563 | |
| 17 | Maryanne Jordan: 10,586 (I) |
Robert Herrin III: 6,235 | |
| 18 | Janie Ward-Engelking: 16,833 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 19 | Cherie Buckner-Webb: 19,679 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 20 | Bill Rutherford: 6,525 | Chuck Winder: 13,787 (I) |
|
| 21 | No candidate | Clifford Bayer: 17,462 (I) |
|
| 22 | No candidate | Lori Den Hartog: 13,805 (I) |
|
| 23 | No candidate | Bert Brackett: 12,422 (I) |
|
| 24 | Deborah Silver: 6,004 | Lee Heider: 10,698 (I) |
|
| 25 | Scott F. McClure: 4,620 | James Patrick: 12,077 (I) |
|
| 26 | Michelle Stennett: 10,470 (I) |
Dale Ewersen: 7,863 | |
| 27 | No candidate | Kelly Anthon: 13,259 (I) |
|
| 28 | Mike Saville: 7,404 | Jim Guthrie: 11,880 (I) |
|
| 29 | Mark Nye: 8,018 |
Tom Katsilometes: 7,482 | Sierra Carta: 1,159 (L) |
| 30 | No candidate | Dean Mortimer: 17,000 (I) |
|
| 31 | No candidate | R. Steven Bair: 13,954 (I) |
|
| 32 | Bob Fitzgerald: 4,139 | Mark Harris: 16,168 (I) |
|
| 33 | No candidate | Bart Davis: 11,848 (I) |
|
| 34 | No candidate | Brent Hill
| |
| 35 | No candidate | Jeff Siddoway: 16,665 (I) |
|
Notes:
|
Primary election
Races we watched
Ballotpedia identified nine notable Idaho state primary races in 2016, two of which were state Senate contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Idaho races »
Primary contests
- The primary contest featured two conservative Republicans.
- ☑ Abby Lee (Inc.) ☐ Viki Purdy
- The Republican primary contest featured a rematch between two conservative Republicans.
- ☑ Lori Den Hartog (Inc.) ☐ Charles Pratt Porter ☐ Ernie Terrell
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Idaho State Senate in 2016 was higher than the national average. Out of 35 races in the Idaho State Senate in 2016, 21 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 34.4 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[2]
Republican candidates in the Idaho State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic candidates in 2016. Republicans won 29 races. In the 17 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 39.2 percent. Democrats won six races in 2016. In the four races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 14.3 percent.
Democratic candidates and Republican candidates both won a single race with a margin of victory that was less than 10 percentage points. Two of the 21 contested races in 2016—9.5 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Two races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Both parties won one race with a margin of victory of 10 percent or less.
Idaho State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 5 R 1.5 percent District 29 D 3.2 percent
The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Idaho State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was higher than the national average. 31 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 17 winning Idaho State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 37 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent.
Republican incumbents in the Idaho State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic incumbents. 26 Republican incumbents won re-election. In the 14 races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 41 percent. Five Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the three races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 18 percent.
Idaho State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[3] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[3] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 6 14.3 percent 5 18.0 percent 2 2 33.3 percent Republican 29 39.2 percent 26 41.0 percent 12 12 41.4 percent Total 35 34.4 percent 31 37.0 percent 14 14 40.0 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Idaho State Senate districts in 2016.
| Idaho State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | R | 52.6 percent |
| District 2 | R | Unopposed |
| District 3 | R | Unopposed |
| District 4 | R | 25.9 percent |
| District 5 | R | 1.5 percent |
| District 6 | R | Unopposed |
| District 7 | R | 47.7 percent |
| District 8 | R | 53.7 percent |
| District 9 | R | 59.6 percent |
| District 10 | R | 36.7 percent |
| District 11 | R | 55.8 percent |
| District 12 | R | 45.1 percent |
| District 13 | R | 42.2 percent |
| District 14 | R | 41.3 percent |
| District 15 | R | 12.7 percent |
| District 16 | D | 14.0 percent |
| District 17 | D | 25.9 percent |
| District 18 | D | Unopposed |
| District 19 | D | Unopposed |
| District 20 | R | 35.8 percent |
| District 21 | R | Unopposed |
| District 22 | R | Unopposed |
| District 23 | R | Unopposed |
| District 24 | R | 28.1 percent |
| District 25 | R | 44.7 percent |
| District 26 | D | 14.2 percent |
| District 27 | R | Unopposed |
| District 28 | R | 23.2 percent |
| District 29 | D | 3.2 percent |
| District 30 | R | Unopposed |
| District 31 | R | Unopposed |
| District 32 | R | 59.2 percent |
| District 33 | R | Unopposed |
| District 34 | R | Unopposed |
| District 35 | R | Unopposed |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Idaho elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Idaho in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description |
| March 8, 2016 | Election date | Presidential preference primary election |
| March 11, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for both party and independent candidates |
| April 19, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for write-in candidates to file declarations of intent for the primary election |
| May 10, 2016 | Campaign finance | 7-day pre-primary report due |
| May 17, 2016 | Election date | Primary election |
| June 16, 2016 | Campaign finance | 30-day post-primary report due |
| August 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Semi-annual report due (for non-active statewide candidates only) |
| August 30, 2016 | Ballot access | Last day to file new political party formation petitions |
| October 11, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for write-in candidates to file declarations of intent for the general election |
| October 11, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-general report due |
| November 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | 7-day pre-general report due |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election |
| December 8, 2016 | Campaign finance | 30-day post-general report due |
| January 31, 2017 | Campaign finance | Annual report due |
| Sources: Idaho Secretary of State, "Elections–2016 Election Consolidation Calendar," accessed July 9, 2015 Idaho Secretary of State, "Idaho Sunshine Law - Reporting Dates - 2015/2016 Election Cycle," accessed July 9, 2015 |
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 15 of the 35 districts up for election in 2016, there was only one major-party candidate running for election. A total of thirteen Republicans and two Democrats were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 20 of the 35 districts up for election.
Primary challenges
Five incumbents, all Republicans, faced primary competition on May 17. Two incumbents did not seek re-election and another 28 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition. The following state senator was defeated in the primary election:
- District 7: Sheryl L. Nuxoll (R)
Retired incumbents
Two incumbent senators did not run for re-election, while 33 ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, one Republican and one Democrat, can be found above.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index — the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates — showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition, and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Idaho's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Idaho Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 10.5% | 33.0% | 52.3% | 31.9 | 16 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Idaho in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[4]
| Idaho State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 67 | $1,361,971 |
| 2012 | 88 | $2,021,127 |
| 2010 | 76 | $1,380,073 |
| 2008 | 71 | $1,647,496 |
| 2006 | 75 | $1,198,513 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Idaho, at $20,328 per candidate, is ranked 36 of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[4][5]
Qualifications
Article III, Section 6 of the Idaho Constitution states: "No person shall be a senator or representative who, at the time of his election, is not a citizen of the United States, and an elector of this state, nor anyone who has not been for one year next preceding his election an elector of the county or district whence he may be chosen."
See also
External links
- Idaho Secretary of State - primary candidate list
- Idaho Secretary of State - Third party general election candidates
- Idaho Secretary of State - Primary election results
Footnotes
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Idaho," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
Leadership
Majority Leader:Lori Den Hartog
Minority Leader:Melissa Wintrow
Senators
Republican Party (29)
Democratic Party (6)
