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United States Senate elections in Arizona, 2012

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2012 U.S. Senate Elections in Arizona
General Election Date
November 6, 2012
Primary Date
August 28, 2012
November 6 Election Winner:
Jeff Flake Republican Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Jon Kyl Republican Party

Jon Kyl.jpg

Cook Political Report Race Rating
     Tossup (Prior to Election)
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2012 U.S. House Elections

Flag of Arizona.png

Voters in Arizona elected one member to the U.S. Senate in the November 6, 2012 elections.

Jeff Flake (R) won election on November 6, 2012.[1]

Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
May 30, 2012 August 28, 2012 November 6, 2012

Primary: Arizona's primary system is considered semi-closed. Unaffiliated voters may choose which party's primary they will vote in, but voters registered with a party can only vote in that party's primary.[2]

Voter registration: Voters were required to register to vote in the primary by July 30. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 9.[3]

See also: Arizona elections, 2012

Incumbent: The election filled the Class 1 Senate seat, formerlyl held by Jon Kyl (R). First elected in 1994, Kyl did not seek re-election in 2012.

Candidates

General election candidates

Democratic PartyRichard Carmona
Republican PartyJeff Flake Green check mark transparent.png
Libertarian PartyMarc Victor
Grey.pngIan Gilyeat

August 28, 2012, primary results

Election results

General election

U.S. Senate, Arizona General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJeff Flake 49.2% 1,104,457
     Democratic Richard Carmona 46.2% 1,036,542
     Libertarian Marc Victor 4.6% 102,109
     Independent Steven Watts (Write-in) 0% 290
     Independent Don Manspeaker (Write-in) 0% 24
Total Votes 2,243,422
Source: Arizona Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

Race background

Incumbent Jon Kyl (R), first elected in 1994, did not seek re-election in 2012. The primary election to fill his seat took place on August 28th. After the primary, four candidates remained in the running for the Class 1 open seat: Richard Carmona (D), who ran unopposed in his party's primary following the withdrawal of his only challenger, Republican nominee and contested primary victor Jeff Flake, and two minor-party challengers, Sheila Bilyeu (Libertarian) and Ian Gilyeat (Independent).

Flake, a U.S. Representative from Arizona's 6th Congressional District, won the Republican primary and was considered the front-runner for the open seat. Democratic nominee Carmona was a former surgeon general in the Bush administration and a Vietnam war veteran.[10]

The National Republican Senatorial Committee started running ads in Arizona shortly after the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's decision to begin running TV ads.[11]

A Public Policy Polling survey in early October of 2012 found Carmona leading by 2 points.[11]

Competitiveness

An analysis of 2012 Senate elections published by The New York Times rated the Arizona Senate race as leaning Republican.[10]

Race rating

Cook Political Report

Each month the Cook Political Report released race ratings for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. There are seven possible designations:[12]

     Solid Democratic
     Likely Democratic
     Lean Democratic

     Tossup

     Lean Republican
     Likely Republican
     Solid Republican

Cook Political Report Race Rating -- Arizona Senate
Month Rating
November 1, 2012[13]     
October 4, 2012[14]     
September 13, 2012[15]     
August 21, 2012[16]     
July 12, 2012[17]     
May 31, 2012[18]     
May 10, 2012[19]     
March 22, 2012[20]     
March 1, 2012[21]     
January 26, 2012[22]     
December 22, 2011[23]     
December 1, 2011[24]     

Polls

Jeff Flake vs. Richard Carmona
Poll Jeff Flake Richard CarmonaOtherUndecidedMargin of errorSample size
Rasmussen Reports (October 25, 2012)
 50%44%3%3%+/-4.5500
Rasmussen Reports (September 26, 2012)
 47%41%3%9%+/-4.5500
AVERAGES 48.5% 42.5% 3% 6% +/-4.5 500
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Campaign contributions

Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2012 elections season. Below are candidate reports.

Wil Cardon

Wil Cardon Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period		ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[25]April 15, 2012$1,228,825.87$3,198,945.18$(1,031,924.63)$3,395,846.42
July Quarterly[26]July 15, 2012$3,395,846.42$3,298,820.06$(4,303,868.75)$2,390,797.73
Pre-Primary[27]August 16, 2012$2,390,797.73$1,343,546$(3,416,694.07)$317,649.66
Running totals
$7,841,311.24$(8,752,487.45)

Jeff Flake

Jeff Flake Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period		ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[28]April 14, 2012$2,563,566.45$944,877.03$(408,614.22)$3,099,829.26
July Quarterly[29]July 14, 2012$3,099,829.26$915,277.39$(1,254,438.98)$2,760,667.67
Pre-Primary[30]August 16, 2012$2,760,667.67$524,282.29$(1,579,588.60)$1,705,361.36
Running totals
$2,384,436.71$(3,242,641.8)

Bryan Hackbarth

Bryan Hackbarth Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period		ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[31]April 3, 2012$420.88$14,550$(14,424.56)$546.32
July Quarterly[32]July 11, 2012$546.32$3,919.74$(4,466.06)$4,104.42
Running totals
$18,469.74$(18,890.62)

Clair Van Steenwyk

Clair Van Steenwyk Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period		ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[33]May 7, 2012$109.22$7,499.77$(7,875.44)$458.05
July Quarterly[34]July 6, 2012$458.05$9,475.77$(8,271.42)$1,652.40
Running totals
$16,975.54$(16,146.86)

Election history

2010

On November 2, 2010, John McCain won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Rodney Glassman, David F. Nolan and Jerry Joslyn in the general election.[35]

U.S. Senate, Arizona General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn McCain Incumbent 59.1% 1,005,615
     Democratic Rodney Glassman 34.8% 592,011
     Libertarian David F. Nolan 4.7% 80,097
     Green Jerry Joslyn 1.4% 24,603
Total Votes 1,702,326

2006

On November 7, 2006, Jon Kyl won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Jim Pederson and Richard Mack in the general election.[36]

U.S. Senate, Arizona General Election, 2006
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJon Kyl Incumbent 53.3% 814,398
     Democratic Jim Pederson 43.5% 664,141
     Libertarian Richard Mack 3.2% 48,231
Total Votes 1,526,770

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ ABC News, "2012 General Election Results," accessed November 6, 2012
  2. ↑ Fair Vote, "Congressional and Presidential Primaries: Open, Closed, Semi-Closed, and 'Top Two,'" accessed January 2, 2014
  3. ↑ Arizona Secretary of State, "Important Dates," accessed June 29, 2012
  4. ↑ Fox News, "Richard Carmona Announces Bid for Arizona Senate," accessed January 4, 2012
  5. ↑ The Arizona Republic, "Democrat Don Bivens to seek Senate seat," accessed January 4, 2012
  6. ↑ Eastern Arizona Courier, "Cardon announces candidacy for U.S. Senate at Safford meeting" accessed November 30, 2011 (dead link)
  7. ↑ CBS News, "Jeff Flake Announces Senate Bid," accessed January 4, 2012
  8. ↑ The Arizona Republic, "Democrats target Richard Carmona for Senate run," accessed January 4, 2012
  9. ↑ Politics Arizona, "New candidate to challenge Jeff Flake & Wil Cardon for Kyl's US Senate seat," accessed January 4, 2012
  10. ↑ 10.0 10.1 The New York Times, "2012 Senate race ratings," accessed September 17, 2012
  11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 Politico, "NRSC going up in Arizona," October 4, 2012
  12. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Our Accuracy," accessed December 12, 2011 (dead link)
  13. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," November 1, 2012
  14. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," October 4, 2012
  15. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," September 13, 2012
  16. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," August 21, 2012
  17. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," July 12, 2012
  18. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 31, 2012
  19. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 10, 2012
  20. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 22, 2012
  21. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 1, 2012
  22. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," January 26, 2012
  23. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 27, 2011
  24. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 1, 2011
  25. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Wil Cardon April Quarterly," accessed August 20, 2012
  26. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Wil Cardon July Quarterly," accessed August 20, 2012
  27. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Wil Cardon Pre-Primary," accessed August 20, 2012
  28. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Jeff Flake April Quarterly," accessed August 20, 2012
  29. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Jeff Flake July Quarterly," accessed August 20, 2012
  30. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Jeff Flake Pre-Primary," accessed August 20, 2012
  31. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Bryan Hackbarth April Quarterly," accessed August 20, 2012
  32. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Bryan Hackbarth July Quarterly," accessed August 20, 2012
  33. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Clair Van Steenwyk April Quarterly," accessed August 20, 2012
  34. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Clair Van Steenwyk July Quarterly," accessed August 20, 2012
  35. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
  36. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2006," accessed March 28, 2013

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