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United States Senate elections in North Carolina, 2014

U.S. Senate, North Carolina General Election, 2014

Party	Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Democratic	Kay Hagan Incumbent	47.3%	1,377,651
	Republican	Thom Tillis	48.8%	1,423,259
	Libertarian	Sean Haugh	3.7%	109,100
	Write-in	John Rhodes	0%	621
	Write-in	David Waddell	0%	201
	Write-in	Barry Gurney	0%	142
	Write-in	Write-in (miscellaneous)	0.1%	4,307
Total Votes	2,915,281
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections

2014 U.S. Senate Elections in North Carolina

General Election Date
November 4, 2014

Primary Date
May 6, 2014

November 4 Election Winner:
Thom Tillis

Incumbent prior to election:
Kay Hagan

Race Ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss Up^[1]

Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss Up^[2]

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2014 U.S. House Elections

Voters in North Carolina elected one member to the U.S. Senate in the election on November 4, 2014.

Challenger Thom Tillis (R) defeated incumbent Kay Hagan (D) in a close race that turned out to be the most expensive congressional race in history up to that point.^[3] After North Carolinians voted for Obama in 2008 and Romney in 2012, both parties saw their candidates as having a shot, leading to a state-wide media blitz.^[3]

According to data from OpenSecrets, the total cost of the race, including both candidate spending and satellite spending, came to $110,404,092.^[4] When compared to other 2014 U.S. Senate races, North Carolina ranked only fourth in terms of candidate spending alone, but satellite spending on the race far surpassed all other 2014 races. Outside groups spent $80,652,743 in North Carolina, over $10 million above Colorado's U.S. Senate race, which ranked second in satellite spending.^[5]

Although numbers remained close in general election polls throughout the election cycle, Hagan appeared to have a consistent 2-3 percent lead. Hagan's lead almost always fell within the margin of error, which normally ranged from 3-4 percentage points, depending on the poll. Nonetheless, out of all polling organizations following the race, Harper Polling was the only one that showed Tillis leading in its last pre-election survey.^[6] One political strategist, Gary Pearce, theorized that the failure of most polls to accurately predict the outcome arose due to low voter turnout. Because the North Carolina Senate race was so competitive, and with control of the Senate on the line, many experts expected a higher turnout. Pearce explained that pollsters "were making an assumption that it would have been a presidential level of turnout. It really was just a regular midterm turnout."^[6]

As of January 2014, Obama's approval rating in North Carolina was a mere 43 percent.^[3] Given this fact, coupled with close numbers in the general election polls and Hagan's support of the Affordable Care Act, or "Obamacare", which was unpopular in North Carolina, Republicans viewed Hagan's seat as vulnerable.^[7] Because of this opportunity, Republicans from various backgrounds and ideologies stepped forward to compete for the Republican nomination, making for a hotly contested Republican primary. Despite a late surge for tea party favorite Greg Brannon, Republican primary polls had Tillis, the Republican establishment pick, in the lead throughout the race. Tillis received over 45 percent of the primary vote.^[7]

Libertarian Sean Haugh consistently received 7-10 percent in the polls - an abnormally high threshold for a third party candidate - leading some to speculate that he would pose a threat to Tillis by splitting the conservative vote. However, Haugh received fewer votes than the polls predicted, and Tillis pulled ahead of Hagan.

Candidate Filing Deadline	Primary Election	General Election
February 28, 2014	May 6, 2014	November 4, 2014

Primary: A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. North Carolina utilizes a semi-closed primary system. Parties decide who may vote in their respective primaries. Voters may choose a primary ballot without impacting their unaffiliated status.^[8]^[9]

For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article. If the winner of the primary had failed to obtain 40 percent of the vote, the top two candidates would have gone into a runoff primary, which would have taken place on July 15, 2014.^[10]

Voter registration: To vote in the primary, voters had to register by April 11, 2014. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 10, 2014 (25 days before the day of the election).^[11]

See also: North Carolina elections, 2014

Incumbent: The election filled the Senate seat held by Kay Hagan (D). Hagan was first elected in 2008.

Candidates

General election candidates

May 6, 2014, primary results

Libertarian Party Candidates

Declined to run

Election results

General election

U.S. Senate, North Carolina General Election, 2014

Party	Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Democratic	Kay Hagan Incumbent	47.3%	1,377,651
	Republican	Thom Tillis	48.8%	1,423,259
	Libertarian	Sean Haugh	3.7%	109,100
	Write-in	John Rhodes	0%	621
	Write-in	David Waddell	0%	201
	Write-in	Barry Gurney	0%	142
	Write-in	Write-in (miscellaneous)	0.1%	4,307
Total Votes	2,915,281
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections

Primary election

U.S. Senate, North Carolina Republican Primary, 2014

Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Thom Tillis	45.7%	223,174
Greg Brannon	27.1%	132,630
Mark Harris	17.5%	85,727
Heather Grant	4.7%	22,971
Jim Snyder	1.9%	9,414
Ted Alexander	1.9%	9,258
Alex Bradshaw	0.7%	3,528
Edward Kryn	0.4%	1,853
Total Votes	488,555
Source: Results via the North Carolina State Board of Elections

U.S. Senate, North Carolina Democratic Primary, 2014

Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Kay Hagan Incumbent	77.2%	372,209
Will Stewart	13.9%	66,903
Ernest Reeves	9%	43,257
Total Votes	482,369
Source: Results via the North Carolina State Board of Elections

U.S. Senate, North Carolina Libertarian Primary, 2014

Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Sean Haugh	60.7%	1,226
Tim D'Annunzio	39.3%	794
Total Votes	2,020
Source: Results via the North Carolina State Board of Elections

Race background

Vulnerable incumbent

Incumbent Kay Hagan was a Democratic senator in a red state, making her seat one of the most vulnerable in 2014. The unpopularity of President Obama's healthcare mandate, combined with an unfavorable opinion of its implementation, was a major issue that Hagan had to face.

American Future Fund ad campaign for Haugh

In October 2014, the American Future Fund spent $225,000 supporting Haugh in an online ad campaign. One campaign video, entitled, "More Weed, Less War," featured catch phrases such as, "Get Haugh, get high," showing Haugh's support for legalizing marijuana. Various media sources originally reported the American Future Fund as being funded by Charles and David Koch, but a spokesman for the Koch-backed network's financial group, Freedom Partners, stated, "Freedom Partners has not given American Future Fund any grants in the last two years and has no involvement with their current campaign in North Carolina."^[32]

Satellite spending

In October 2014, OpenSecrets.org announced that North Carolina's 2014 U.S. Senate race had taken the lead for the most satellite spending in history for a U.S. Senate election. At the time of the report, $55.7 million had been spent on the race.^[33] The biggest spender of the race was the Democratic Senate Majority PAC, which spent over $10 million. This was the largest amount that one group had spent on any election in 2014. Other notable groups spending on the race were the Koch-affiliated Freedom Partners Action Fund and Americans for Prosperity.^[33]

The final total for satellite spending in the race was $84,517,806, over $15 million above any other U.S. Senate race in 2014. The second highest election for satellite spending in 2014 was Colorado's U.S. Senate election, with $69,382,497.^[34]

Ethics complaints

Kay Hagan (D) and Thom Tillis (R) filed ethics complaints against each other in the month leading up to the general election. Tillis accused Hagan of helping her husband's company, JDC Manufacturing, receive $390,000 in tax credits and grants. According to the complaint, Hagan voted for the 2009 stimulus law that provided the money to Chip Hagan's company. The Republican Party of North Carolina filed the complaint with the Senate Ethics Committee, asking that they investigate whether Hagan's actions constituted a conflict of interest. Republican Party Chairman Claude Pope wrote, "The Committee needs to investigate whether Senator Hagan steered taxpayer funds to her husband for her own personal gain in violation of the Senate Ethics rules and the public trust."^[35] Hagan denied helping her husband's company receive the grants, and her spokeswoman added that Hagan "made sure that a respected ethics attorney was consulted to ensure that it was appropriate, and the attorney found that it was."^[35]

Hagan retaliated by calling for another ethics investigation against Tillis, arguing that Tillis voted for Recovery Act tax credits out of personal self-interest. Tillis owned stock in Aquesta Bank, which benefited from over $1 million in tax credits from the program. Forward North Carolina, a pro-Democratic group, decided to file a complaint with the North Carolina's state ethics commission. Spokesman Ben Ray stated, "Speaker Tillis should come clean about his investments and his votes to benefit Aquesta Bank and his personal bottom line."^[35]

General election debate: Hagan vs. Tillis

September 3, 2014, marked the first debate between Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan and Republican challenger Thom Tillis. Both candidates sought to appear moderate while accusing each other of being too radical. While Hagan accused Tillis of having a bad voting record on women's issues, Tillis argued in favor of making contraceptives more available to women, saying, "I actually agree with the American Medical Association that we should make contraception more widely available. I think over-the-counter oral contraception should be available without a prescription."^[36] At the same time, Tillis attempted to associate Hagan with President Barack Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. In response, Hagan distanced herself from both Democratic leaders, emphasizing that National Journal had ranked her as the most moderate senator and disagreeing with Obama on issues dealing with the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Hagan stated, "Action is needed. I believe that we need to work with the moderate Syrian rebels…I want to see the president’s plans, and I’m ready to take action."^[36]

Tillis' tone

Following the debate, Tillis received criticism from many women voters who said that Tillis used a disrespectful or condescending tone when referring to Hagan. Throughout the debate, Tillis referred to Hagan by her first name, "Kay," whereas Hagan followed normal debate procedure and consistently called Tillis by his formal title, "Speaker Tillis."^[37] Tillis also made a comment that, "Kay’s math just doesn’t add up," which some took to be a criticism of Hagan's math skills. Hagan took offense at the comment, as she had been the vice president of a bank prior to her political career.^[37]

Splitting the Republican vote

Libertarian Sean Haugh did not have enough support to win the general election against Hagan and Tillis, but for a third party candidate, he did remarkably well in the polls. His increasing involvement worried many Republicans, who feared that he would siphon votes away from Tillis and increase Hagan's chances of winning the Senate seat in November. Although Haugh did not have anywhere near the cash on hand of Hagan or Tillis, he remained active by creating YouTube videos and asking for Bitcoin donations.^[38]

Hagan's tactics

Leading up to the May 6 primary, Kay Hagan sent out mailers to Republican voters which stated that Thom Tillis supported the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, informally known as "Obamacare." According to Hagan, Tillis declared Obamacare to be “a great idea."^[39] Although Hagan fully supported the healthcare law, by criticizing Tillis, she hoped to draw votes away from Tillis and increase the chances of a runoff for the Republican primary. With the Republicans' campaign funds tied up for the runoff, Hagan would have been free to save up money for the general election in November. Tillis defended his comments by saying that Hagan took them out of context, as he had only sarcastically stated that Obamacare was a “great idea that can’t be paid for."^[39]

Tillis in legislative session

As an active member of the North Carolina House of Representatives, Thom Tillis' time was divided between legislative session and the campaign trail, which may have hurt him in the polls. The president of Public Policy Polling stated, "Kay Hagan’s lead over Thom Tillis has tended to grow whenever the legislature is in session."^[40] This trend could have occurred due to voter dissatisfaction with the General Assembly, or it may have had more to do with Tillis having less time to spend campaigning. Tillis disagreed with the former, as he hypothesized, "I don’t believe it’s had any meaningful impact on where I am in polls, simply because most people don’t follow the legislature." Instead, Tillis attributed his slipping numbers in the polls to the numerous ads opposing him put out by Hagan and her supporters.^[40]

Republican primary

Despite the hype that surrounded the Republican primary, Thom Tillis defeated his closest competitor, Greg Brannon, by a margin of more than 18 percentage points.

Primary background

Republicans saw North Carolina as a potential opportunity to add a Republican senate seat. As a result, eight Republicans joined the race for the Republican nomination in this hotly contested primary. Based on most Republican primary polls, Thom Tillis had a substantial lead in the weeks leading up to the primary, and he had a monetary advantage over the other Republican candidates. Nonetheless, Greg Brannon was a tea party favorite and Mark Harris, a Baptist pastor, had the support of many conservative Christians. Tillis needed to win at least 40 percent of the total votes in order to avoid facing the runner-up in a runoff primary on July 15, 2014. Tillis easily crossed that threshold with over 45 percent of the vote.^[7]

National conservatives and Republicans entered the fray of the Republican primary in North Carolina. Groups such as American Crossroads, which is affiliated with Karl Rove, worked aggressively to secure the nomination for Thom Tillis. Meanwhile, Rand Paul announced that he would campaign for Greg Brannon in the last crucial week before the early May primary.^[41]

Race ratings

Most vulnerable seats

The FiscalTimes compiled a list of the seven most vulnerable Senate seats up for election in 2014. The seven included in the list were Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Dakota and West Virginia. Going into the 2014 election, all seven seats were held by Democrats.^[42]

Democrat Kay Hagan was "swept into office with the aid of presidential turnout in 2008."^[42] In 2014, there was no presidential race above her on the ballot, so turnout was expected to be down.^[42]

WaPo top 10 races

According to an analysis by The Washington Post, the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina was considered one of the top 10 Senate races of 2014. Sen. Kay Hagan faced strong criticism throughout the election cycle from the right over the issue of the Affordable Care Act.^[43]

Issues

See also: Energy and the 2014 election: the ballots and beyond

General election themes: ISIS and Ebola

Leading up to the November 4 general election, two national security issues made headlines and raised concerns across the country: the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and fears of an Ebola outbreak in the United States. One article from The Washington Post examined the possibility that these two issues may have caused a voter shift in North Carolina's U.S. Senate election, allowing Tillis to narrow the very slight gap by which Hagan had been leading throughout the campaign.^[44]

At the very least, these issues were major talking points for both candidates. Tillis criticized Hagan for missing a classified meeting in February regarding ISIS and national security. He stated, "Senator Hagan decided that a Park Avenue fundraiser was more important than a classified briefing on ISIS."^[44] Regarding the Ebola virus, Hagan changed her position on a travel ban from affected African countries. Previously, she had stated that it would not help, but on October 17, she called on President Barack Obama to institute a travel ban for non-U.S. citizens. Tillis criticized Hagan here as well, saying, "Senator Hagan finally said that there should be a limited ban on travel from western Africa. Well, welcome to the club of common sense. But it’s not enough. This is an opportunity where she could have proven to be independent and say, ‘Mr. President, we need to protect the safety and security of America.'"^[44] Hagan defended herself, explaining to reporters, "Speaker Tillis can only criticize. He has not one idea on his own that he would put forward — not one.”^[44]

Obamacare

The Affordable Care Act was one of the biggest issues in the race. Incumbent Kay Hagan defended her stance on the issue from criticism from groups such as Americans for Prosperity and the state's Republican Party. Hagan was asked about reported issues where some people with individual policies had them canceled due to the Affordable Care Act. She responded, "People were told they would be able to keep their plans if they liked them, and I am co-sponsoring a bill to ensure that that happens."^[45]

Key votes

Government shutdown

See also: United States budget debate, 2013

During the shutdown in October 2013, the Senate rejected, down party lines, every House-originated bill that stripped the budget of funding for the Affordable Care Act. A deal was reached late on October 16, 2013, just hours before the debt ceiling deadline. The bill to reopen the government, H.R. 2775, lifted the $16.7 trillion debt limit and funded the government through January 15, 2014. Federal employees also received retroactive pay for the shutdown period. The only concession made by Senate Democrats was to require income verification for Obamacare subsidies.^[46] The final vote on H.R. 2775 was 81-18, with all 18 votes against the bill from Republican members. Kay Hagan voted with the Democratic Party for the bill.^[47]

Endorsements

Kay Hagan

Hagan was endorsed by Vice President Joe Biden, who campaigned for her in November 2013. He praised her as being able to work with Republicans, saying "the only way to break through this gridlock is with people who can earn the trust of people on the other team. That's why she's so valuable."^[48]

Republican candidates

North Carolina Senate Republican Contested Primary
Endorsement/Contribution	Thom Tillis	Greg Brannon	Mark Harris	Heather Grant	Ted Alexander	Edward Kryn	Jim Snyder
Rand Paul		October 16, 2013
Mitch McConnell	December 9, 2013
Mike Huckabee			January 16, 2014
FreedomWorks		February 4, 2014
The National Organization for Marriage			February 19, 2014
GOPAC	February 19, 2014
Mike Lee		March 6, 2014
American Crossroads and Karl Rove	April 1, 2014
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce	April 8, 2014
The National Rifle Association	April 15, 2014
National Right to Life	April 25, 2014
Pat McCrory	April 29, 2014
Jeb Bush	April 30, 2014
Mitt Romney	May 5, 2014

Polls

General election polls

General election candidates (October 2014-Present)
Poll	Kay Hagan	Thom Tillis	Sean Haugh	Undecided	Margin of Error	Sample Size

CNN/ORC International (October 27-30, 2014)	48%	46%	4%	1%	+/-4	559
Anderson Robbins/Shaw & Company (October 28-30, 2014)	43%	42%	4%	8%	+/-3	909
Public Policy Polling (October 28-29, 2014)	47%	46%	4%	3%	+/-4	657
Public Opinion Strategies (October 26-27, 2014)	44%	44%	7%	5%	+/-4.0	600
NBC News/Marist (October 24, 2014)	43%	43%	7%	6%	+/-3.6	756
SurveyUSA (October 21-25, 2014)	44%	44%	5%	5%	+/-3.5	802
Monmouth University Polling Institute (October 23-26, 2014)	48%	46%	1%	4%	+/-4.7	432
Public Policy Polling (October 16-18, 2014)	46%	43%	5%	7%	+/-3.5	780
SurveyUSA (October 16-20, 2014)	46%	43%	6%	5%	+/-4.2	568
SurveyUSA/Time Warner Cable (October 9-12, 2014)	44%	41%	7%	8%	+/-4.2	554
High Point University (September 30-October 9, 2014)	40%	40%	7%	13%	+/-4.1	584
Susan B. Anthony List/Morey Group (October 1-6, 2014)	40.1%	37.8%	2.0%	20.2%	+/-3.2	955
Public Opinion Strategies (October 4-7, 2014)	44%	42%	6%	8%	+/-4	600
Suffolk University/USA TODAY (October 4-October 7, 2014)[49]	46.80%	45.40%	4.40%	3.00%	+/-4.4	500
NBC News/Marist (October 2014)	44%	40%	7%	9%	+/-3.8	665
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

General election candidates (May 2014-September 2014)
Poll	Kay Hagan	Thom Tillis	Sean Haugh	Undecided	Margin of Error	Sample Size

Civitas/National Research, Inc. (September 25, 27 and 28, 2014)	41%	40%	4%	14%	+/-4	600
CNN/ORC International (September 22-25, 2014)	46%	43%	7%	1%	+/-4	595
High Point University Survey Research Center (September 13-18, 2014)	42%	40%	6%	12%	+/-5	410
Public Policy Polling (September 11-14, 2014)	44%	40%	5%	11%	+/-2.8	1,266
American Insights (September 5-10, 2014)	43%	34%	5%	18%	+/-4.6	459
SurveyUSA/Civitas Institute (September 9-10, 2014)	46%	43%	5%	6%	+/-4.5	490
Public Opinion Strategies (September 2-4, 2014)	44%	44%	8%	4%	+/-4.0	600
Suffolk University (August 16-19, 2014)	45%	43%	5%	5%	+/-4.4	500
Public Policy Polling (August 14-17, 2014)	42%	38%	8%	13%	+/-3.4	856
Civitas Institute (July 28-29, 2014)	41%	39%	7%	12%	+/-4	600
Public Policy Polling (July 17-20, 2014)	41%	34%	8%	16%	+/-3.0	1,062
Civitas Institute (June 18-19 and June 22, 2014)	42%	36%	9%	12%	+/-4	600
Public Policy Polling (June 12-15, 2014)	39%	34%	11%	16%	+/-3.0	1,076
Civitas Institute (May 20-22, 2014)	36%	39%	8%	15%	+/-4	600
Public Policy Polling (May 9-11, 2014)	38%	36%	11%	15%	+/-3.3	877
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Kay Hagan vs. Thom Tillis (August 2014-Present)
Poll	Kay Hagan	Thom Tillis	Other candidate/Not sure	Margin of Error	Sample Size

Vox Populi Polling (October 26-27, 2014)	43%	48%	9%	+/-3.95	615
Rasmussen Reports (October 28-29, 2014)	47%	46%	6%	+/-3	982
Elon University (October 21-25, 2014)	44.7%	40.7%	12.9%	+/-3.74	687
Gravis Marketing (October 16-18, 2014)	43%	48%	9%	+/-3	1,022
Rasmussen Reports (October 6-7, 2014)	48%	46%	6%	+/-3	970
Civitas/National Research, Inc. (September 25, 27 and 28, 2014)	43%	42%	14%	+/-4	600
Human Events and Gravis Marketing (September 22–23, 2014)	46%	42%	12%	+/-3	860
Public Policy Polling (September 11-14, 2014)	46%	42%	12%	+/-2.8	1,266
Elon University Poll (September 5-9, 2014)	44.9%	40.8%	13.7%	+/-3.91	629
American Insights (September 5-10, 2014)	47%	38%	15%	+/-4.6	459
SurveyUSA/Civitas Institute (September 9-10, 2014)	47%	46%	7%	+/-4.5	490
Rasmussen Reports (September 8-10, 2014)	45%	39%	15%	+/-4	1,000
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (September 3-6, 2014)	48%	45%	7%	+/-3.5	802
Public Policy Polling (August 14-17, 2014)	43%	42%	14%	+/-3.4	856
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Kay Hagan vs. Thom Tillis (November 2013-August 2014)
Poll	Kay Hagan	Thom Tillis	Other candidate/Not sure	Margin of Error	Sample Size

Rasmussen Reports (August 5-6, 2014)	40%	45%	15%	+/-4	750
Civitas Institute (July 28-29, 2014)	43%	45%	10%	+/-4	600
Human Events and Gravis Marketing (July 22-27, 2014)	44%	41%	15%	+/-3	1,380
Public Policy Polling (July 17-20, 2014)	42%	39%	19%	+/-3.0	1,062
Civitas Institute (June 18-19 and June 22, 2014)	47%	43%	9%	+/-4	600
Civitas Institute (May 20-22, 2014)	41%	46%	12%	+/-4	600
Public Policy Polling (May 9-11, 2014)	41%	41%	18%	+/-3.3	877
Rasmussen Reports (May 7-8, 2014)	44%	45%	12%	+/-4	750
The New York Times/Kaiser Family Foundation (April 8-15, 2014)^[50]	42%	40%	19%	+/-4	900
Public Policy Polling (April 3-6, 2014)	43%	41%	16%	+/-3.6	740
Survey USA (March 27-31, 2014)	45%	46%	9%	+/-2.6	1,489
Public Policy Polling (March 6-9, 2014)	44%	43%	13%	+/-3.3	884
Hickman Analytics (February 17-20, 2014)	45%	41%	14%	+/-4.9	400
Public Policy Polling (December 5-8, 2013)	44%	42%	14%	+/-2.7	1,281
Public Policy Polling (November 8-11, 2013)	44%	42%	14%	+/-3.7	701
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Kay Hagan vs. Greg Brannon
Poll	Kay Hagan	Greg Brannon	Not sure	Margin of Error	Sample Size

The New York Times/Kaiser Family Foundation (April 8-15, 2014)^[50]	41%	39%	21%	+/-4	900
Public Policy Polling (April 3-6, 2014)	40%	42%	18%	+/-3.6	740
Survey USA (March 27-31, 2014)	45%	47%	9%	+/-2.6	1,489
Public Policy Polling (March 6-9, 2014)	43%	43%	14%	+/-3.3	884
Public Policy Polling (December 5-8, 2013)	43%	45%	11%	+/-2.7	1,281
Public Policy Polling (November 8-11, 2013)	43%	44%	14%	+/-3.7	701
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Kay Hagan vs. Heather Grant
Poll	Kay Hagan	Heather Grant	Not sure	Margin of Error	Sample Size

Public Policy Polling (April 3-6, 2014)	39%	43%	19%	+/-3.6	740
Survey USA (March 27-31, 2014)	44%	46%	10%	+/-2.6	1,489
Public Policy Polling (March 6-9, 2014)	43%	42%	15%	+/-3.3	884
Public Policy Polling (December 5-8, 2013)	43%	43%	14%	+/-2.7	1,281
Public Policy Polling (November 8-11, 2013)	43%	40%	17%	+/-3.7	701
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Kay Hagan vs. Mark Harris
Poll	Kay Hagan	Mark Harris	Not sure	Margin of Error	Sample Size

Public Policy Polling (April 3-6, 2014)	40%	44%	17%	+/-3.6	740
Survey USA (March 27-31, 2014)	43%	47%	10%	+/-2.6	1,489
Public Policy Polling (March 6-9, 2014)	43%	43%	14%	+/-3.3	884
Public Policy Polling (December 5-8, 2013)	43%	43%	14%	+/-2.7	1,281
Public Policy Polling (November 8-11, 2013)	43%	41%	16%	+/-3.7	701
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Kay Hagan vs. Alex Bradshaw
Poll	Kay Hagan	Alex Bradshaw	Not sure	Margin of Error	Sample Size

Public Policy Polling (April 3-6, 2014)	41%	42%	17%	+/-3.6	740
Public Policy Polling (March 6-9, 2014)	43%	43%	14%	+/-3.3	884
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Kay Hagan vs. Edward Kryn
Poll	Kay Hagan	Edward Kryn	Not sure	Margin of Error	Sample Size

Public Policy Polling (April 3-6, 2014)	40%	41%	19%	+/-3.6	740
Public Policy Polling (March 6-9, 2014)	43%	41%	16%	+/-3.3	884
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Kay Hagan vs. Jim Snyder
Poll	Kay Hagan	Jim Snyder	Not sure	Margin of Error	Sample Size

Public Policy Polling (April 3-6, 2014)	41%	41%	18%	+/-3.6	740
Public Policy Polling (March 6-9, 2014)	42%	43%	16%	+/-3.3	884
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Kay Hagan vs. Ted Alexander
Poll	Kay Hagan	Ted Alexander	Not sure	Margin of Error	Sample Size

Public Policy Polling (April 3-6, 2014)	42%	43%	15%	+/-3.6	740
Survey USA (March 27-31, 2014)	44%	46%	10%	+/-2.6	1,489
Public Policy Polling (March 6-9, 2014)	43%	45%	12%	+/-3.3	884
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Hagan vs. potential Republican primary candidates
Poll	Kay Hagan	Cherie Berry	Phil Berger	Renee Ellmers	Greg Brannon	Thom Tillis	Jim Cain	Mark Harris	Lynn Wheeler	Margin of Error	Sample Size

Public Policy Polling May 17-20, 2013	15%	14%	10%	10%	7%	6%	4%	3%	3%	+/-4.4	500
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Republican primary polls

Republican primary candidates
Poll	Thom Tillis	Greg Brannon	Heather Grant	Ted Alexander	Mark Harris	Alex Bradshaw	Jim Snyder	Edward Kryn	Undecided	Margin of Error	Sample Size

Public Policy Polling (May 3-4, 2014)	40%	28%	4%	2%	15%	0%	1%	1%	11%	+/-3.2	925
Public Policy Polling (April 26-28, 2014)	46%	20%	5%	2%	11%	1%	3%	2%	12%	+/-3.7	694
Public Policy Polling (April 3-6, 2014)	18%	15%	7%	6%	11%	5%	2%	1%	34%	+/-5.5	314
Survey USA (March 27-31, 2014)	23%	15%	6%	6%	11%	1%	3%	2%	34%	+/-4.8	433
Survey USA (March 17-19, 2014)	28%	15%	11%	7%	6%	4%	4%	3%	23%	+/-5	405
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Republican primary candidates
Poll	Greg Brannon	Heather Grant	Mark Harris	Thom Tillis	Not sure	Margin of Error	Sample Size

Public Policy Polling (November 8-11, 2013)	11%	8%	14%	20%	47%	+/-4.4	498
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Republican primary candidates
Poll	Thom Tillis	Greg Brannon	Mark Harris	None/Other/No One	Don’t Know	Refused	Margin of Error	Sample Size

Civitas Institute (April 19-22, 2014)	27%	13%	16%	13%	30%	1%	+/-4.0	600
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Thom Tillis vs. Greg Brannon
Poll	Thom Tillis	Greg Brannon	Not sure	Margin of Error	Sample Size

Public Policy Polling (May 3-4, 2014)	46%	40%	14%	+/-3.2	925
Public Policy Polling (April 26-28, 2014)	50%	32%	18%	+/-3.7	694
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Thom Tillis vs. Mark Harris
Poll	Thom Tillis	Mark Harris	Not sure	Margin of Error	Sample Size

Public Policy Polling (May 3-4, 2014)	49%	34%	16%	+/-3.2	925
Public Policy Polling (April 26-28, 2014)	53%	27%	20%	+/-3.7	694
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Campaign contributions

Candidate ballot access

Find detailed information on ballot access requirements in all 50 states and Washington, D.C.

Kay Hagan

Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Hagan’s reports.^[51]

Kay Hagan (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
Report	Date Filed	Beginning Balance	Total Contributions for Reporting Period	Expenditures	Cash on Hand
April Quarterly^[52]	April 15, 2013	$1,365,627.08	$1,622,571.71	$(279,822.20)	$2,708,376.59
July Quarterly^[53]	July 15, 2013	$2,708,376.59	$2,057,465.19	$(584,754.52)	$4,181,087.26
October Quarterly^[54]	October 15, 2013	$4,181,087.26	$1,850,053.94	$(631,689.54)	$5,399,451.66
Year-End Quarterly^[55]	July 10, 2014	$5,399,451.66	$2,075,855.25	$(660,062.66)	$6,815,244.25
April Quarterly^[56]	April 14, 2014	$6,815,294.25	$2,801,697.84	$(1,116,754.86)	$8,500,237.23
Pre-Primary^[57]	July 10, 2014	$8,500,187.23	$521,299.67	$(399,068.10)	$8,622,418.80
July Quarterly^[58]	August 8, 2014	$8,622,468.80	$3,409,193.88	$(3,302,311.74)	$8,729,350.94
October Quarterly^[59]	October 8, 2014	$8,729,350.94	$4,887,690.85	$(11,627,067.26)	$1,989,974.53
Pre-General^[60]	October 20, 2014	$1,989,974.53	$1,390,661.03	$(2,400,480.16)	$980,155.40
			Running totals
			$20,616,489.36	$(21,002,011.04)

Thom Tillis

Candidates for Congress were required to file reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Tillis' reports.^[61]

Thom Tillis (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
Report	Date Filed	Beginning Balance	Total Contributions for Reporting Period	Expenditures	Cash on Hand
July Quarterly^[62]	July 15, 2013	$0.00	$277,922.08	$(22,916.56)	$255,005.52
October Quarterly^[63]	October 15, 2013	$255,005.52	$811,675.98	$(227,964.43)	$838,717.07
Year-End^[64]	April 15, 2014	$838,717.07	$714,326.17	$(266,132.65)	$1,286,910.59
April Quarterly^[65]	April 15, 2014	$1,286,910.59	$1,308,066.86	$(1,272,540.04)	$1,322,437.41
Pre-Primary^[66]	April 21, 2014	$1,322,437.41	$151,611.47	$(406,189.80)	$1,067,859.08
July Quarterly^[67]	July 15, 2014	$1,067,859.08	$1,500,510.39	$(1,039,092.53)	$1,529,276.94
October Quarterly^[68]	October 15, 2014	$1,529,276.94	$3,389,157.99	$(2,719,149.12)	$2,199,285.81
Pre-General^[69]	October 20, 2014	$2,199,285.81	$902,080.67	$(1,971,186.95)	$1,130,179.53
			Running totals
			$9,055,351.61	$(7,925,172.08)

Greg Brannon

Greg Brannon (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
Report	Date Filed	Beginning Balance	Total Contributions for Reporting Period	Expenditures	Cash on Hand
April Quarterly^[70]	April 15, 2013	$0.00	$47,124.00	$(28,167.14)	$18,956.86
July Quarterly^[71]	July 24, 2013	$17,956.86	$71,054.58	$(42,850.82)	$46,160.62
October Quarterly^[72]	October 15, 2013	$41,001.62	$155,743.02	$(91,481.88)	$105,262.76
			Running totals
			$273,921.6	$(162,499.84)

Media

Supporting Kay Hagan

The Senate Majority PAC spent close to $750,000 in December 2013 on an ad supporting Hagan's work to protect Medicare and Social Security.^[73]

As part of a $3 million offensive effort against the billionaire Koch brothers in early 2014, the Senate Majority PAC released "Bracket" on March 26, 2014.^[74]
- The ad was March Madness-themed, and alleged that while Hagan challenger Thom Tillis (R) had been Speaker of the North Carolina House, he backed tax cuts for the wealthy, and would support a plan to “end Medicare as we know it.”^[74]

"Count on" ad supporting Kay Hagan

Senate Majority PAC's March 2014 ad, "Bracket."

Opposing Kay Hagan

Americans for Prosperity spent $1.7 million to release an ad opposing Kay Hagan for her position on Obamacare in October 2013.

Crossroads GPS released a campaign ad in May 2014 accusing Hagan of lying about Obamacare.^[75]

Generation Opportunity released a campaign ad against Hagan in June 2014 geared toward college graduates.^[76]

Ad opposing Kay Hagan on Obamacare

Crossroads GPS ad opposing Kay Hagan on Obamacare

Generation Opportunity ad opposing Hagan on spending and Obamacare

Opposing Thom Tillis

Hagan released two ads in October 2014 opposing Tillis on women's health issues, such as the defunding of Planned Parenthood. Women Vote!, a pro-choice group connected to EMILY's List, released a similar ad against Tillis.^[77]^[78]^[79]

Hagan campaign ad criticizing Tillis for defunding Planned Parenthood

Hagan campaign ad criticizing Tillis on women's health issues

Women Vote! campaign ad criticizing Tillis on healthcare for women

The Senate Majority PAC spent $850,000 to run an ad opposing Republican primary winner Tillis over a span of two weeks. They recorded the narrator of the ad at Tillis' own victory party.^[80]

Senate Majority PAC ad opposing Tillis

Sean Haugh

Without much campaign funding, Libertarian candidate Sean Haugh did not have the means of producing cable television ads. However, he released a series of YouTube videos.^[81]

Haugh campaign video explaining why he ran for U.S. Senate

Election history

2010

On November 2, 2010, Richard Burr (R) won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Elaine Marshall (D) and Michael Beitler (L) in the general election.^[82]

U.S. Senate, North Carolina General Election, 2010
Party	Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Richard Burr incumbent	54.8%	1,458,046
	Democratic	Elaine Marshall	43%	1,145,074
	Libertarian	Michael Beitler	2.1%	55,687
	N/A	Write-in	0%	1,272
Total Votes	2,660,079

2008

On November 4, 2008, Kay Hagan (D) won election to the United States Senate. She defeated Elizabeth Dole (R) and Christopher Cole (L) in the general election.^[83]

U.S. Senate, North Carolina General Election, 2008
Party	Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Democratic	Kay Hagan	52.7%	2,249,311
	Republican	Elizabeth Dole	44.2%	1,887,510
	Libertarian	Christopher Cole	3.1%	133,430
	N/A	Write-in	0%	1,719
Total Votes	4,271,970
Source: [1]

External links

Associated Press, Primary Election Results

Footnotes

v • e 2013-2014 Elections to the United States Congress

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Senate Special Elections	Hawaii (2014) • Massachusetts (2013) • New Jersey (2013) • South Carolina (2014)

House Special Elections	Illinois' 2nd District (2013) • Missouri's 8th District (2013) • South Carolina's 1st District (2013) • Alabama's 1st District (2013) • Louisiana's 5th District (2013) • Massachusetts' 5th District (2013) • Florida's 13th District (2014)

Election information	Ballot access for major and minor party candidates • List of candidates running for election • List of congressional challengers • Congressional incumbents not running for re-election • Filing deadlines and primary dates • Elected Officials Running for a Different office • Contested primaries • Contested Primaries Analysis • Official Lists of Candidates • Election Results

Super PACs/Organizations	American Bridge 21st Century • American Crossroads • American Unity PAC • Campaign for Primary Accountability • Club for Growth Action • Congressional Leadership Fund • Cooperative of American Physicians IE Committee• Crossroads Generation • Ending Spending Action Fund • Endorse Liberty • Fair Share Action • FreedomWorks for America • Government Integrity Fund • House Majority PAC • Independence USA Fund • League of Conservation Voters • Liberty for All PAC • Majority PAC • National Association of Realtors • NEA Advocacy Fund • Now or Never PAC • Planned Parenthood Votes • Ready for Hillary • Republicans for a Prosperous America • Restore America's Voice PAC • SEIU Pea-Federal • Women Vote!

Senators

Representatives

Republican Party (12)

Democratic Party (4)