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The orbital evolution of the asteroid Eros and implications for collision with the Earth - Nature

  • ️Froeschlé, Ch.
  • ️Thu Apr 25 1996
  • Letter
  • Published: 25 April 1996

Nature volume 380, pages 689–691 (1996)Cite this article

Abstract

THE population of asteroids that cross the Earth's orbit is responsible for most of the terrestrial impacts of kilometre-size objects, of which there may be several per million years1. About 150 Earth-crossing asteroids are known, although many more are thought to exist2. Asteroids that come close to the Earth's orbit, but do not currently cross it, may also pose a threat if they evolve onto Earth-crossing orbits. The asteroid 433 Eros, with a dia-meter of ∼22 km and a perihelion of 1.13 AU (where 1 AU is the average distance of the Earth from the Sun), is the second-largest near-Earth asteroid3. Here we report a study of the dynamical evolution of Eros's orbit over a period of two million years. We identify an orbital resonance with Mars that has the potential to perturb Mars-crossing asteroids, such as Eros, onto Earth-crossing orbits; of eight trial orbits that closely match Eros's present orbital parameters, three become Earth-crossing on the timescale of our simulations, and one of these hits the Earth after 1.14 Myr. Although our simulations indicate no significant danger of a catastrophic impact by this large near-Earth asteroid during the next ∼105 years, such a collision is likely in the far future.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, Laboratoire G.D. Cassini, CNRS URA 1362, BP 229, 06304, Nice, Cedex 4, France

    P. Michel & Ch. Froeschlé

  2. Dipartimento di Matematica, Università di Pisa, Via Buonarroti 2, 56127, Pisa, Italy

    P. Farinella

Authors

  1. P. Michel

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  2. P. Farinella

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  3. Ch. Froeschlé

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Michel, P., Farinella, P. & Froeschlé, C. The orbital evolution of the asteroid Eros and implications for collision with the Earth . Nature 380, 689–691 (1996). https://doi.org/10.1038/380689a0

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  • Received: 19 December 1995

  • Accepted: 20 March 1996

  • Issue Date: 25 April 1996

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/380689a0