CN105303301A - Pre-severe precipitation disaster risk prediction method - Google Patents
- ️Wed Feb 03 2016
CN105303301A - Pre-severe precipitation disaster risk prediction method - Google Patents
Pre-severe precipitation disaster risk prediction method Download PDFInfo
-
Publication number
- CN105303301A CN105303301A CN201510658167.1A CN201510658167A CN105303301A CN 105303301 A CN105303301 A CN 105303301A CN 201510658167 A CN201510658167 A CN 201510658167A CN 105303301 A CN105303301 A CN 105303301A Authority
- CN
- China Prior art keywords
- disaster
- monitoring data
- precipitation
- analysis
- data unit Prior art date
- 2015-10-14 Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Pending
Links
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title abstract 3
- 238000001556 precipitation Methods 0.000 title abstract 2
- 238000012544 monitoring process Methods 0.000 abstract 4
- 238000010835 comparative analysis Methods 0.000 abstract 2
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 abstract 1
- 238000012821 model calculation Methods 0.000 abstract 1
Classifications
-
- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A10/00—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE at coastal zones; at river basins
- Y02A10/40—Controlling or monitoring, e.g. of flood or hurricane; Forecasting, e.g. risk assessment or mapping
-
- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A90/00—Technologies having an indirect contribution to adaptation to climate change
- Y02A90/10—Information and communication technologies [ICT] supporting adaptation to climate change, e.g. for weather forecasting or climate simulation
Landscapes
- Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)
Abstract
本发明公开了一种强降水灾前风险预估方法，包括用于灾害致灾因子计算的气象资料单元和用于致灾因子气候背景分析、灾害过程相似度拟合、灾害预测模型运算的监测数据单元以及用于灾害影响评估预警的对比分析单元。本发明通过对气象资料的分析得出灾害的致灾因子，为监测数据单元提供基本的监测方向，然后由监测的数据分析计算得出致灾因子背景、历史相似灾情和灾害预测信息，再结合由灾害影响评估模型运算得出的灾害影响评估信息，实现了灾情综合的对比分析，最后得出了较为准确强降水灾害预警信息，有利于减少强降水灾害发生后的损失。
The invention discloses a pre-disaster risk estimation method for heavy rainfall, which includes a meteorological data unit for calculating disaster-causing factors and monitoring for climate background analysis of disaster-causing factors, disaster process similarity fitting, and disaster prediction model calculation Data unit and comparative analysis unit for disaster impact assessment and early warning. The present invention obtains the disaster-causing factors through the analysis of meteorological data, provides the basic monitoring direction for the monitoring data unit, and then obtains the background of the disaster-causing factors, historical similar disaster situation and disaster prediction information through the analysis and calculation of the monitoring data, and then combines The disaster impact assessment information calculated by the disaster impact assessment model realizes the comprehensive comparative analysis of the disaster situation, and finally obtains more accurate heavy rainfall disaster early warning information, which is conducive to reducing the loss after the heavy precipitation disaster occurs.
Description
技术领域 technical field
本发明涉及一种灾前风险预估方法，具体为一种强降水灾前风险预估方法。 The invention relates to a pre-disaster risk estimation method, in particular to a pre-disaster risk estimation method for heavy rainfall.
背景技术 Background technique
全球变暖的气候背景下，极端气象灾害如暴雨洪涝、干旱、暴雪、高温热浪、低温冷害等日益频繁，造成了国民经济和人民生命财产的巨大损失，引起各级政府和百姓的广泛重视。在这些重大的气象灾害事件中，强降水致灾的影响极为突出，强降水所导致的灾害在我国致灾气象事件中所占比例高达40%，是全国危害最严重的气象灾害。每年由于极端天气导致的直接经济损失高达上千亿元，尤其是对农业的生产造成了巨大的损失，直接影响了我国国民经济正常平稳的运行。目前，我国对强降水灾的灾前风险评估还处于起步探索阶段，对强降水灾前风险的预估还未形成一套完整成熟的评估系统，尤其在我国的四川省地区，地形复杂，气象变化多，强降水灾前预估更加困难。同时，四川省作为人口大省，为了保证人民的财产安全，减少灾后损失，亟待我们去发明一种强降水灾前风险预估方法。 Under the background of global warming, extreme meteorological disasters such as rainstorms, floods, droughts, blizzards, high temperature heat waves, and low temperature damage are becoming more and more frequent, causing huge losses to the national economy and people's lives and property, and have attracted widespread attention from governments at all levels and the people. Among these major meteorological disasters, the impact of heavy precipitation is extremely prominent. Disasters caused by heavy precipitation account for as high as 40% of the disaster-causing meteorological events in my country, and they are the most serious meteorological disasters in the country. Every year, the direct economic losses caused by extreme weather are as high as hundreds of billions of yuan, especially for agricultural production, which directly affects the normal and stable operation of my country's national economy. At present, my country's pre-disaster risk assessment of heavy rainfall and floods is still in the initial stage of exploration, and a complete and mature assessment system has not yet been formed for the prediction of heavy rainfall and pre-disaster risks, especially in Sichuan Province, where the terrain is complex and the weather There are many changes, and it is more difficult to predict heavy rainfall and floods. At the same time, as a province with a large population, in order to ensure the safety of people's property and reduce post-disaster losses, it is urgent for us to invent a pre-disaster risk estimation method for heavy rainfall.
发明内容 Contents of the invention
本发明的目的在于提供一种强降水灾前风险预估方法，以解决上述背景技术中提出的问题。 The purpose of the present invention is to provide a pre-disaster risk estimation method for heavy rainfall to solve the problems raised in the above-mentioned background technology.
为实现上述目的，本发明提供如下技术方案： To achieve the above object, the present invention provides the following technical solutions:
一种强降水灾前风险预估方法，其特征在于，包括用于灾害致灾因子计算的气象资料单元和用于致灾因子气候背景分析、灾害过程相似度拟合、灾害预测模型运算的监测数据单元以及用于灾害影响评估预警的对比分析单元。 A pre-disaster risk estimation method for heavy rainfall, characterized in that it includes a meteorological data unit for calculating disaster-causing factors and monitoring for climate background analysis of disaster-causing factors, disaster process similarity fitting, and disaster prediction model calculation Data unit and comparative analysis unit for disaster impact assessment and early warning.
作为本发明更进一步的技术方案，气象资料单元包括：：历史气象资料、实时气象资料和预报气象资料。 As a further technical solution of the present invention, the weather data unit includes: historical weather data, real-time weather data and forecast weather data.
作为本发明更进一步的技术方案，监测数据单元包括：历史监测数据、实时监测数据和预报监测数据。 As a further technical solution of the present invention, the monitoring data unit includes: historical monitoring data, real-time monitoring data and forecast monitoring data.
作为本发明更进一步的技术方案，所述历史监测数据与致灾因子气候背景分析相连。 As a further technical solution of the present invention, the historical monitoring data is connected with the climate background analysis of the disaster-causing factors.
作为本发明更进一步的技术方案，所述监测数据单元与灾害过程相似度拟合和灾害预测模型运算相连。 As a further technical solution of the present invention, the monitoring data unit is connected with disaster process similarity fitting and disaster prediction model calculation.
作为本发明更进一步的技术方案，所述灾害过程相似度拟合和历史灾情与相似历史灾情统计相连。 As a further technical solution of the present invention, the similarity fitting of the disaster process and the historical disaster situation are connected with the similar historical disaster situation statistics.
作为本发明更进一步的技术方案，所述对比分析单元与致灾因子气候背景、历史相似灾情、灾害预测信息和灾害影响评估信息相连。 As a further technical solution of the present invention, the comparative analysis unit is connected with the climate background of the disaster-causing factor, similar historical disaster situations, disaster prediction information and disaster impact assessment information.
本发明通过对气象资料的分析得出灾害的致灾因子，为监测数据单元提供基本的监测方向，然后由监测的数据分析计算得出致灾因子背景、历史相似灾情和灾害预测信息，再结合由灾害影响评估模型运算得出的灾害影响评估信息，实现了灾情综合的对比分析，最后得出了较为准确强降水灾害预警信息，有利于减少强降水灾害发生后的损失。 The present invention obtains the disaster-causing factors through the analysis of meteorological data, provides the basic monitoring direction for the monitoring data unit, and then obtains the background of the disaster-causing factors, historical similar disaster situations and disaster prediction information through the analysis and calculation of the monitoring data, and then combines The disaster impact assessment information calculated by the disaster impact assessment model realizes the comprehensive comparative analysis of the disaster situation, and finally obtains more accurate heavy rainfall disaster early warning information, which is conducive to reducing the loss after the heavy precipitation disaster occurs.
附图说明 Description of drawings
图1为本发明一种强降水灾前风险预估方法的流程图。 Fig. 1 is a flow chart of a method for pre-disaster risk estimation of heavy rainfall according to the present invention.
具体实施方式 detailed description
下面结合具体实施方式对本专利的技术方案作进一步详细地说明。 The technical solution of this patent will be further described in detail below in conjunction with specific embodiments.
请参阅图1，一种强降水灾前风险预估方法，包括气象资料单元、监测数据单元以及对比分析单元； Please refer to Figure 1, a method for pre-disaster risk prediction of heavy precipitation and floods, including meteorological data units, monitoring data units, and comparative analysis units;
气象资料单元，包括历史气象资料、实时气象资料和预报气象资料，用于灾害致灾因子计算，灾害致灾因子计算综合考虑了历史、实时和预报三个阶段的气象资料，得出了较为准确灾害致灾因子数据； The meteorological data unit, including historical meteorological data, real-time meteorological data and forecast meteorological data, is used for the calculation of disaster-causing factors. The calculation of disaster-causing factors comprehensively considers the meteorological data of the three stages of history, real-time and forecast, and obtains a more accurate Disaster hazard data;
监测数据单元，包括历史监测数据、实时监测数据和预报监测数据，用于灾害过程相似度拟合和灾害预测模型运算，历史、实时和预报三个部分数据的分析整合，为下一步灾害过程相似度拟合和灾害预测模型运算提供了较为全面数据支持，历史监测数据用于致灾因子气候背景分析，为下一步确定致灾因子气候背景进行综合对比分析提供背景参考； The monitoring data unit, including historical monitoring data, real-time monitoring data and forecast monitoring data, is used for disaster process similarity fitting and disaster prediction model calculation, and the analysis and integration of historical, real-time and forecast three parts of data, for the next step of disaster process similarity The degree fitting and disaster prediction model calculation provide relatively comprehensive data support, and the historical monitoring data are used for the analysis of the climate background of the disaster-causing factors, providing a background reference for the next step to determine the climate background of the disaster-causing factors for comprehensive comparative analysis;
对比分析单元，充分综合了致灾因子背景、历史相似灾情、灾害预测信息和灾害影响评估信息，进行灾害影响预警，保证了灾害影响评估预警信息的准确性； The comparative analysis unit fully integrates the background of disaster-causing factors, similar historical disaster situations, disaster prediction information and disaster impact assessment information, and performs disaster impact early warning to ensure the accuracy of disaster impact assessment early warning information;
进一步，灾害致灾因子计算用于为数据监测模块提供准确数据信息； Further, the calculation of disaster hazard factors is used to provide accurate data information for the data monitoring module;
致灾因子气候背景分析，用于提供致灾因子气候背景，作为综合对比分析的背景参考； The climate background analysis of hazard factors is used to provide the climate background of hazard factors as a background reference for comprehensive comparative analysis;
历史灾情和灾害过程相似度拟合用于相似历史灾情统计，然后确定历史相似灾情，是进行综合对比分析过程重要的部分； The similarity fitting of historical disaster situation and disaster process is used for the statistics of similar historical disaster situation, and then determining the historical similar disaster situation is an important part of the comprehensive comparative analysis process;
灾害预测模型运算用于得出灾害预测信息，为进行综合对比分析时提供可能的灾害信息，保证了强降水灾害风险预测的全面性； Disaster prediction model calculations are used to obtain disaster prediction information, provide possible disaster information for comprehensive comparison and analysis, and ensure the comprehensiveness of heavy rainfall disaster risk prediction;
灾害影响评估模型运算用于提供灾害影响评估信息，在数学模型的基础上为综合对比分析时提供必要条件； Disaster impact assessment model operations are used to provide disaster impact assessment information, and provide necessary conditions for comprehensive comparative analysis on the basis of mathematical models;
最后，对致灾因子气候背景、历史相似灾情、灾害预测信息和灾害影响评估信息进行综合对比分析，做出灾害影响预警，发布较为准确全面的灾害影响评估预警信息。 Finally, a comprehensive comparative analysis of the climate background of the disaster-causing factors, similar historical disasters, disaster prediction information, and disaster impact assessment information is carried out to make disaster impact early warnings and release more accurate and comprehensive disaster impact assessment early warning information.
本发明在具体使用过程中，本发明通过对气象资料的分析得出灾害的致灾因子，为监测数据单元提供基本的监测方向，然后由监测的数据分析计算得出致灾因子背景、历史相似灾情和灾害预测信息，再结合由灾害影响评估模型运算得出的灾害影响评估信息，实现了灾情综合的对比分析，最后得出了较为准确强降水灾害预警信息，有利于减少强降水灾害发生后的损失。 In the specific use process of the present invention, the present invention obtains the disaster-causing factors of the disaster through the analysis of meteorological data, provides the basic monitoring direction for the monitoring data unit, and then obtains the background and history of the disaster-causing factors through the analysis and calculation of the monitored data. The disaster situation and disaster prediction information, combined with the disaster impact assessment information calculated by the disaster impact assessment model, realizes the comprehensive comparative analysis of the disaster situation, and finally obtains more accurate heavy precipitation disaster early warning information, which is conducive to reducing the aftermath of heavy precipitation disasters. Loss.
上面对本专利的较佳实施方式作了详细说明，但是本专利并不限于上述实施方式，在本领域的普通技术人员所具备的知识范围内，还可以在不脱离本专利宗旨的前提下作出各种变化。 The preferred implementation of this patent has been described in detail above, but this patent is not limited to the above-mentioned implementation. Within the scope of knowledge of those of ordinary skill in the art, various implementations can be made without departing from the purpose of this patent. kind of change.
Claims (7)
1. risk forecast method before a precipitation calamity, it is characterized in that, comprise for the meteorological data unit of disaster Flood inducing factors calculating with for the Monitoring Data unit of Flood inducing factors Climatic Background Analysis, the matching of Hazard processes similarity, hazard prediction model calculation and the comparative analysis unit for disaster impact evaluation early warning.
2. risk forecast method before a kind of precipitation calamity according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described meteorological data unit comprises: Historical Meteorological Information, real-time meteorological data and forecast meteorological data.
3. risk forecast method before a kind of precipitation calamity according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described Monitoring Data unit comprises: Historical Monitoring data, Real-time Monitoring Data and forecast Monitoring Data.
4. risk forecast method before a kind of precipitation calamity according to claim 3, it is characterized in that, described Historical Monitoring data are connected with Flood inducing factors Climatic Background Analysis.
5. risk forecast method before a kind of precipitation calamity according to claim 3, it is characterized in that, described Monitoring Data unit is connected with hazard prediction model calculation with the matching of Hazard processes similarity.
6. risk forecast method before a kind of precipitation calamity according to claim 5, it is characterized in that, the matching of described Hazard processes similarity is connected with similar historical the statistics of geological disaster situation with history the condition of a disaster.
7. risk forecast method before a kind of precipitation calamity according to claim 1, is characterized in that, described comparative analysis unit is connected with disaster impact evaluation information with Flood inducing factors Climatic, the similar the condition of a disaster of history, hazard prediction information.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201510658167.1A CN105303301A (en) | 2015-10-14 | 2015-10-14 | Pre-severe precipitation disaster risk prediction method |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201510658167.1A CN105303301A (en) | 2015-10-14 | 2015-10-14 | Pre-severe precipitation disaster risk prediction method |
Publications (1)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN105303301A true CN105303301A (en) | 2016-02-03 |
Family
ID=55200538
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201510658167.1A Pending CN105303301A (en) | 2015-10-14 | 2015-10-14 | Pre-severe precipitation disaster risk prediction method |
Country Status (1)
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| CN (1) | CN105303301A (en) |
Cited By (3)
* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108595658A (en) * | 2018-04-28 | 2018-09-28 | 尚谷科技（天津）有限公司 | A kind of weather knowledge base detection method based on multimedia content |
| CN109426906A (en) * | 2017-08-29 | 2019-03-05 | 北京思湃德信息技术有限公司 | A kind of heavy rain Hazard Evaluation for Weather Disaster system |
| CN115640967A (en) * | 2022-10-14 | 2023-01-24 | 国网浙江省电力有限公司嘉兴供电公司 | A Method for Elastic Allocation of Power Grid Resources Based on Extreme Precipitation Disaster Prediction |
Citations (4)
* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN102646219A (en) * | 2012-02-27 | 2012-08-22 | 兰州大学 | Early warning methods of snow disasters in pastoral areas |
| CN102867217A (en) * | 2012-08-28 | 2013-01-09 | 南京信息工程大学 | Projection pursuit-based risk evaluation method for meteorological disasters of facility agriculture |
| JP2014203276A (en) * | 2013-04-05 | 2014-10-27 | 株式会社日立製作所 | Supply system and supply method for gas and electricity |
| CN104376510A (en) * | 2014-12-05 | 2015-02-25 | 国家电网公司 | Method of predicting and accessing level of wildfire-caused trip risk in power transmission lines |
-
2015
- 2015-10-14 CN CN201510658167.1A patent/CN105303301A/en active Pending
Patent Citations (4)
* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN102646219A (en) * | 2012-02-27 | 2012-08-22 | 兰州大学 | Early warning methods of snow disasters in pastoral areas |
| CN102867217A (en) * | 2012-08-28 | 2013-01-09 | 南京信息工程大学 | Projection pursuit-based risk evaluation method for meteorological disasters of facility agriculture |
| JP2014203276A (en) * | 2013-04-05 | 2014-10-27 | 株式会社日立製作所 | Supply system and supply method for gas and electricity |
| CN104376510A (en) * | 2014-12-05 | 2015-02-25 | 国家电网公司 | Method of predicting and accessing level of wildfire-caused trip risk in power transmission lines |
Cited By (4)
* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN109426906A (en) * | 2017-08-29 | 2019-03-05 | 北京思湃德信息技术有限公司 | A kind of heavy rain Hazard Evaluation for Weather Disaster system |
| CN108595658A (en) * | 2018-04-28 | 2018-09-28 | 尚谷科技（天津）有限公司 | A kind of weather knowledge base detection method based on multimedia content |
| CN115640967A (en) * | 2022-10-14 | 2023-01-24 | 国网浙江省电力有限公司嘉兴供电公司 | A Method for Elastic Allocation of Power Grid Resources Based on Extreme Precipitation Disaster Prediction |
| CN115640967B (en) * | 2022-10-14 | 2024-05-14 | 国网浙江省电力有限公司嘉兴供电公司 | Power grid resource elastic allocation method based on extreme rainfall disaster prediction |
Similar Documents
| Publication | Publication Date | Title |
|---|---|---|
| CN103163278B (en) | 2015-04-29 | Atmospheric heavy pollution forecast method based on combination of numerical model and statistic analysis |
| CN104615884B (en) | 2017-07-28 | A kind of infectious disease severe based on viral recall rate, mortality risk early warning system and method |
| CN104299367A (en) | 2015-01-21 | Landslide hazard multi-stage comprehensive monitoring and early warning method |
| CN103033855A (en) | 2013-04-10 | Grid meteorological disaster monitoring and early warning system |
| CN102831752B (en) | 2014-08-27 | Glacial lake burst early-warning method |
| CN104570161B (en) | 2017-09-15 | Typhoon automatic forecasting method based on EC/JMA global grid forecasting data |
| CN104534285B (en) | 2017-02-22 | Energy consumption anomaly monitoring method and device |
| CN104851051A (en) | 2015-08-19 | Dynamic-modification-combined storm rainfall fine alarming method for power grid zone |
| CN105303301A (en) | 2016-02-03 | Pre-severe precipitation disaster risk prediction method |
| CN106710148A (en) | 2017-05-24 | Geological disaster prediction method and system |
| CN110298480A (en) | 2019-10-01 | A kind of mountain flood Critical Rainfall index calculating method and system |
| CN104156775A (en) | 2014-11-19 | Meteorological calamity prediction method based on multivariate linear regression algorithm |
| CN105046051A (en) | 2015-11-11 | Prediction method for number of freeze-thaw actions in actual environment |
| CN114594532A (en) | 2022-06-07 | A cold wave weather forecasting method, device, electronic device and computer readable medium |
| CN114881381A (en) | 2022-08-09 | Method and system for predicting urban water level based on improved convolutional neural network |
| CN113962465A (en) | 2022-01-21 | Precipitation forecasting method, equipment, device and storage medium |
| CN117114185A (en) | 2023-11-24 | Power distribution system fault early warning method and system under meteorological disaster |
| CN108364129A (en) | 2018-08-03 | A kind of region ecology safety early alarming and forecasting method based on remote sensing big data |
| CN113837668B (en) | 2022-04-08 | Extreme climate event identification method and system |
| Luo et al. | 2023 | Spatiotemporal evolution analysis and prediction of drought in Henan Province based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index |
| CN103886177A (en) | 2014-06-25 | Lightning fire daily occurrence probability predicting method based on space grids |
| CN106354940A (en) | 2017-01-25 | Landscape water quality simulation and early warning method based on water quality model uncertainty input |
| KR101535528B1 (en) | 2015-07-09 | Calculation method of rainfall risk criteria in city |
| CN105046089B (en) | 2018-02-13 | A kind of method for predicting heavy showers and flood |
| CN104363422A (en) | 2015-02-18 | Power transmission line ice coating pre-warning system based on video monitoring |
Legal Events
| Date | Code | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-02-03 | C06 | Publication | |
| 2016-02-03 | PB01 | Publication | |
| 2016-04-13 | C10 | Entry into substantive examination | |
| 2016-04-13 | SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | |
| 2020-01-24 | RJ01 | Rejection of invention patent application after publication | |
| 2020-01-24 | RJ01 | Rejection of invention patent application after publication |
Application publication date: 20160203 |