Invasion threshold in heterogeneous metapopulation networks - PubMed

Invasion threshold in heterogeneous metapopulation networks

Vittoria Colizza et al. Phys Rev Lett. 2007.

Abstract

We study the dynamics of epidemic and reaction-diffusion processes in metapopulation models with heterogeneous connectivity patterns. In susceptible-infected-removed-like processes, along with the standard local epidemic threshold, the system exhibits a global invasion threshold. We provide an explicit expression of the threshold that sets a critical value of the diffusion/mobility rate below, which the epidemic is not able to spread to a macroscopic fraction of subpopulations. The invasion threshold is found to be affected by the topological fluctuations of the metapopulation network. The results presented provide a general framework for the understanding of the effect of travel restrictions in epidemic containment.

Similar articles

• Epidemic modeling in metapopulation systems with heterogeneous coupling pattern: theory and simulations.

  Colizza V, Vespignani A. Colizza V, et al. J Theor Biol. 2008 Apr 7;251(3):450-67. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2007.11.028. Epub 2007 Nov 29. J Theor Biol. 2008. PMID: 18222487

• Invasion threshold in structured populations with recurrent mobility patterns.

  Balcan D, Vespignani A. Balcan D, et al. J Theor Biol. 2012 Jan 21;293:87-100. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.10.010. Epub 2011 Oct 19. J Theor Biol. 2012. PMID: 22019505 Free PMC article.

• The Scaling of Human Contacts and Epidemic Processes in Metapopulation Networks.

  Tizzoni M, Sun K, Benusiglio D, Karsai M, Perra N. Tizzoni M, et al. Sci Rep. 2015 Oct 19;5:15111. doi: 10.1038/srep15111. Sci Rep. 2015. PMID: 26478209 Free PMC article.

• Epidemionics: from the host-host interactions to the systematic analysis of the emergent macroscopic dynamics of epidemic networks.

  Reppas AI, Spiliotis KG, Siettos CI. Reppas AI, et al. Virulence. 2010 Jul-Aug;1(4):338-49. doi: 10.4161/viru.1.4.12196. Virulence. 2010. PMID: 21178467 Review.

• Modelling the global spread of diseases: A review of current practice and capability.

  Walters CE, Meslé MMI, Hall IM. Walters CE, et al. Epidemics. 2018 Dec;25:1-8. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2018.05.007. Epub 2018 May 18. Epidemics. 2018. PMID: 29853411 Free PMC article. Review.

Cited by

• Predicting the extinction of Ebola spreading in Liberia due to mitigation strategies.

  Valdez LD, Aragão Rêgo HH, Stanley HE, Braunstein LA. Valdez LD, et al. Sci Rep. 2015 Jul 20;5:12172. doi: 10.1038/srep12172. Sci Rep. 2015. PMID: 26190582 Free PMC article.

• Hybrid epidemics--a case study on computer worm conficker.

  Zhang C, Zhou S, Chain BM. Zhang C, et al. PLoS One. 2015 May 15;10(5):e0127478. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0127478. eCollection 2015. PLoS One. 2015. PMID: 25978309 Free PMC article.

• Spotting Epidemic Keystones by R0 Sensitivity Analysis: High-Risk Stations in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area.

  Yashima K, Sasaki A. Yashima K, et al. PLoS One. 2016 Sep 8;11(9):e0162406. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0162406. eCollection 2016. PLoS One. 2016. PMID: 27607239 Free PMC article.

• Ranking stability and super-stable nodes in complex networks.

  Ghoshal G, Barabási AL. Ghoshal G, et al. Nat Commun. 2011 Jul 19;2:394. doi: 10.1038/ncomms1396. Nat Commun. 2011. PMID: 21772265

• On spatially explicit models of cholera epidemics.

  Bertuzzo E, Casagrandi R, Gatto M, Rodriguez-Iturbe I, Rinaldo A. Bertuzzo E, et al. J R Soc Interface. 2010 Feb 6;7(43):321-33. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2009.0204. Epub 2009 Jul 15. J R Soc Interface. 2010. PMID: 19605400 Free PMC article.

Publication types

MeSH terms

LinkOut - more resources

• Full Text Sources

  • American Physical Society

• Medical

  • MedlinePlus Health Information