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Assessing impact of exogenous features on biotic phenomena in the presence of strong spatial dependence: A lake sturgeon case study in natural stream settings - PubMed

  • ️Mon Jan 01 2018

Assessing impact of exogenous features on biotic phenomena in the presence of strong spatial dependence: A lake sturgeon case study in natural stream settings

Andrew O Finley et al. PLoS One. 2018.

Abstract

Modeling spatially explicit data provides a powerful approach to identify the effects of exogenous features associated with biological processes, including recruitment of stream fishes. However, the complex spatial and temporal dynamics of the stream and the species' reproductive and early life stage behaviors present challenges to drawing valid inference using traditional regression models. In these settings it is often difficult to ensure the spatial independence among model residuals-a key assumption that must be met to ensure valid inference. We present statistical models capable of capturing complex residual anisotropic patterns through the addition of spatial random effects within an inferential framework that acknowledges uncertainty in the data and parameters. Proposed models are used to explore the impact of environmental variables on Lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) reproduction, particularly questions about patterns in egg deposition. Our results demonstrate the need to apply valid statistical methods to identify relationships between response variables, e.g., egg counts, across locations, and environmental covariates in the presence of strong and anisotropic autocorrelation in stream systems. The models may be applied to other settings where gamete distribution or, more generally, other biotic phenomena may be associated with spatially dynamic and anisotropic processes.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1

Left panel: star symbol on the inset map of Michigan indicates the Upper Black River study location. The inset box of the Upper Black River identifies the four spawning site locations with circle symbols. Right panels: provide a characterization of each spawning site with flow direction indicated with an arrow. River segment lengths over which measurements were taken are approximately 45, 25, 60, and 30 m, for Sites 1-4.

Fig 2
Fig 2. Point symbols indicate the locations where egg count and environmental covariates were measured at site 3.

Underlying surfaces were generated by passing the given point values through an interpolator.

Fig 3
Fig 3. Frequency histograms for average substrate size, maximum substrate size, water depth, and water velocity for sites 1-4.
Fig 4
Fig 4. Interpolated surfaces of fitted values from the non-spatial and spatial models (a) and (b), respectfully, and spatial model random effects (c) for site 3.

These fitted values can be compared to the observed egg counts illustrated in Fig 2(a).

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Grants and funding

This work was supported by the Michigan Department of Natural Resources, http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100011028, Dr. Kim T Scribner; the Great Lakes Fishery Trust, http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100001145, Dr. Kim T Scribner; National Science Foundation, http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100008982, DMS-1513481, Dr. Andrew O. Finley; and National Science Foundation, http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100008982, EF-1253225, Dr. Andrew O. Finley.

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