Cascading regime shifts within and across scales - PubMed

Affiliations

• PMID: 30573623
• DOI: 10.1126/science.aat7850

Cascading regime shifts within and across scales

Juan C Rocha et al. Science. 2018.

Abstract

Regime shifts are large, abrupt, and persistent critical transitions in the function and structure of ecosystems. Yet, it is unknown how these transitions will interact, whether the occurrence of one will increase the likelihood of another or simply correlate at distant places. We explored two types of cascading effects: Domino effects create one-way dependencies, whereas hidden feedbacks produce two-way interactions. We compare them with the control case of driver sharing, which can induce correlations. Using 30 regime shifts described as networks, we show that 45% of regime shift pairwise combinations present at least one plausible structural interdependence. The likelihood of cascading effects depends on cross-scale interactions but differs for each type. Management of regime shifts should account for potential connections.

Comment in

• Seeing a global web of connected systems.

  Scheffer M, van Nes EH. Scheffer M, et al. Science. 2018 Dec 21;362(6421):1357. doi: 10.1126/science.aav8478. Science. 2018. PMID: 30573615 No abstract available.

Similar articles

• Regime shifts in the anthropocene: drivers, risks, and resilience.

  Rocha JC, Peterson GD, Biggs R. Rocha JC, et al. PLoS One. 2015 Aug 12;10(8):e0134639. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0134639. eCollection 2015. PLoS One. 2015. PMID: 26267896 Free PMC article.

• Regime shifts and resilience in China's coastal ecosystems.

  Zhang K. Zhang K. Ambio. 2016 Feb;45(1):89-98. doi: 10.1007/s13280-015-0692-2. Epub 2015 Aug 19. Ambio. 2016. PMID: 26286204 Free PMC article.

• Gradual regime shifts in fairy circles.

  Zelnik YR, Meron E, Bel G. Zelnik YR, et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Oct 6;112(40):12327-31. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1504289112. Epub 2015 Sep 11. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015. PMID: 26362787 Free PMC article.

• Regime shifts in marine ecosystems: detection, prediction and management.

  deYoung B, Barange M, Beaugrand G, Harris R, Perry RI, Scheffer M, Werner F. deYoung B, et al. Trends Ecol Evol. 2008 Jul;23(7):402-9. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2008.03.008. Epub 2008 May 22. Trends Ecol Evol. 2008. PMID: 18501990 Review.

• Interdisciplinary knowledge exchange across scales in a globally changing marine environment.

  McDonald KS, Hobday AJ, Fulton EA, Thompson PA. McDonald KS, et al. Glob Chang Biol. 2018 Jul;24(7):3039-3054. doi: 10.1111/gcb.14168. Epub 2018 May 24. Glob Chang Biol. 2018. PMID: 29656423 Review.

Cited by

• Anatomy and resilience of the global production ecosystem.

  Nyström M, Jouffray JB, Norström AV, Crona B, Søgaard Jørgensen P, Carpenter SR, Bodin Ö, Galaz V, Folke C. Nyström M, et al. Nature. 2019 Nov;575(7781):98-108. doi: 10.1038/s41586-019-1712-3. Epub 2019 Nov 6. Nature. 2019. PMID: 31695208 Review.

• Feedback in tropical forests of the Anthropocene.

  Flores BM, Staal A. Flores BM, et al. Glob Chang Biol. 2022 Sep;28(17):5041-5061. doi: 10.1111/gcb.16293. Epub 2022 Jun 30. Glob Chang Biol. 2022. PMID: 35770837 Free PMC article. Review.

• Climate change, ecosystems and abrupt change: science priorities.

  Turner MG, Calder WJ, Cumming GS, Hughes TP, Jentsch A, LaDeau SL, Lenton TM, Shuman BN, Turetsky MR, Ratajczak Z, Williams JW, Williams AP, Carpenter SR. Turner MG, et al. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2020 Mar 16;375(1794):20190105. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2019.0105. Epub 2020 Jan 27. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2020. PMID: 31983326 Free PMC article. Review.

• Marine mammals as indicators of Anthropocene Ocean Health.

  Plön S, Andra K, Auditore L, Gegout C, Hale PJ, Hampe O, Ramilo-Henry M, Burkhardt-Holm P, Jaigirdar AM, Klein L, Maewashe MK, Müssig J, Ramsarup N, Roussouw N, Sabin R, Shongwe TC, Tuddenham P. Plön S, et al. NPJ Biodivers. 2024 Sep 10;3(1):24. doi: 10.1038/s44185-024-00055-5. NPJ Biodivers. 2024. PMID: 39256530 Free PMC article. Review.

• A tale of two islands: evidence for impaired stress response and altered immune functions in an insular pit viper following ecological disturbance.

  Sandfoss MR, Claunch NM, Stacy NI, Romagosa CM, Lillywhite HB. Sandfoss MR, et al. Conserv Physiol. 2020 May 3;8(1):coaa031. doi: 10.1093/conphys/coaa031. eCollection 2020. Conserv Physiol. 2020. PMID: 32382421 Free PMC article.

Publication types

MeSH terms

LinkOut - more resources

• Full Text Sources

  • Atypon
  • Ovid Technologies, Inc.

• Other Literature Sources

  • H1 Connect

• Medical

  • MedlinePlus Health Information