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Analytical Representations for Characterizing the Global Aviation Radiation Environment Based on Model and Measurement Databases - PubMed

. 2018 Oct;16(10):1523-1538.

doi: 10.1029/2018SW001843. Epub 2018 Oct 9.

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Analytical Representations for Characterizing the Global Aviation Radiation Environment Based on Model and Measurement Databases

W Kent Tobiska et al. Space Weather. 2018 Oct.

Abstract

The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety climatological model and the Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) statistical database are presented as polynomial fit equations. Using equations based on altitude, L shell, and geomagnetic conditions an effective dose rate for any location from a galactic cosmic ray (GCR) environment can be calculated. A subset of the ARMAS database is represented by a second polynomial fit equation for the GCR plus probable relativistic energetic particle (REP; Van Allen belt REP) effective dose rates within a narrow band of L shells with altitudinal and geomagnetic dependency. Solar energetic particle events are not considered in this study since our databases do not contain these events. This work supports a suggestion that there may be a REP contribution having an effect at aviation altitudes. The ARMAS database is rich in Western Hemisphere observations for L shells between 1.5 and 5; there have been many cases of enhanced radiation events possibly related to effects from radiation belt particles. Our work identifies that the combined effects of an enhanced radiation environment in this L shell range are typically 15% higher than the GCR background. We also identify applications for the equations representing the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety and ARMAS databases. They include (i) effective dose rate climatology in comparison with measured weather variability and (ii) climatological and statistical weather nowcasting and forecasting. These databases may especially help predict the radiation environment for regional air traffic management, for airport overflight operations, and for air carrier route operations of individual aircraft.

Keywords: ARMAS; NAIRAS; aviation radiation database; radiation climatology; radiation weather.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1

Global ARMAS dose rates above 8 km for all geomagnetic conditions. ARMAS = Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety.

Figure 2
Figure 2

Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety galactic cosmic ray background climatology for NOAA G0 geomagnetic conditions at 11 km with Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety weather data overlaid. NOAA = National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Figure 3
Figure 3

NAIRAS GCR climatology (red and black) and ARMAS statistical database (blue) effective dose rates for NOAA G0 geomagnetic conditions at 11 km using equation (2) coefficients from Table 2. NAIRAS = Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety; GCR = galactic cosmic ray; ARMAS = Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety; NOAA = National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Figure 4
Figure 4

ARMAS effective dose rate GCR statistical background (black dotted line), median GCR + REP database (red), and mean GCR + REP database (black), for NOAA G0 geomagnetic conditions at 11 km using equation (3) coefficients from Table 3. ARMAS = Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety; GCR = galactic cosmic ray; REP = relativistic energetic particle; NOAA = National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Figure 5
Figure 5

ARMAS derived effective dose rate (colored dots) compared with NAIRAS (red dots circled in black) for NOAA G0 geomagnetic conditions at 11 km for all geomagnetic latitudes. ARMAS = Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety; NAIRAS = Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety; NOAA = National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Figure 6
Figure 6

Climatological forecast for galactic cosmic rays only of the effective dose rates, dE/dt, from 8 to 19 km based on the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety model for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration G‐scale geomagnetic conditions of G0.

Figure 7
Figure 7

(top) Regional and airport nowcast effective dose rate, dE/dt, showing the Continental U.S. (CONUS) air traffic control perspective between Boston and Seattle. (bottom) The aircraft route nowcast from Boston to Seattle. Both panels have a flight track with derived dE/dt on a commercial carrier at 10 km for 20 February 2017 overlaid on the nowcast.

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