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Climate forcings in the industrial era - PubMed

️Thu Jan 01 1998

Review

Climate forcings in the industrial era

J E Hansen et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 1998.

Abstract

The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

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Figures

**Figure 1**
Principal anthropogenic GHGs in the Industrial era.

**Figure 2**
Estimated radiative forcings between 1850 and the present.

**Figure 3**
Optical depth, climate forcing, and simulated equilibrium temperature change for three assumed anthropogenic aerosol distributions. These are the three “more realistic” single scatter albedo (ω) cases of Table 2.

**Figure 4**
Climate forcing and simulated surface air temperature response for land-use change between the pre-Industrial era and the present.

**Figure 5**
Growth rate of greenhouse climate forcing based on gas histories shown in Fig. 1. Dashed line is forcing due to 1% CO₂ increase.

**Figure 6**
Fossil fuel CO₂ emissions (45). Mean annual growth rates are shown for four periods.

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Climate forcings in the industrial era - PubMed