Changes in water volume of the Aral Sea after 1960

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• Chen, Su-Chin
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• Gaybullaev, Dilmurod

Abstract

The Aral Sea is the biggest saline lake in Central Asia. This brackish water body was the world's fourth largest lake before it started to shrink in the 1960's due to water withdrawal for land irrigation. The runoff decreased from 20.6 km³ in 2003 to 4.5 km³ in 2010 and precipitation reduced from 9.4 km³ in 1960 to 3 km³ in 2010. Based on comparative hydrological data between 1960 and 2005, water volume of the Aral Sea reduced significantly. The observed values of runoff, evaporation, precipitation, and water volume were used to estimate water volume from 1957 to 2010, and the coefficient of determination for predicted water volume is 0.7647. We have obtained regression parameters using previously observed data to further estimate corresponding magnitudes of precipitation, runoff, and evaporation from 2011 to 2031, and as a result are then applied in the estimation of the water volume. Our prediction proposes that water volume of the Aral Sea will be decrease approximately to 75.4 km³ in 2031.