balkanalysis.com

By Ioannis Michaletos

Serbia, which once could claim to have the capital of the entire Balkans in Belgrade, is still in the process of recovering from the frustrating 1990’s and the major consequences of Yugoslavia’s disintegration, including the former embargo, the wreckage left by NATO’s 1999 bombing, and constant political pressure from the Hague over the war crimes issue. Yet even though for most international investors Serbia is not considered as a major destination, Greek businessmen have already seized the opportunity to firmly establish themselves in the center of the Balkans, which by definition is Serbia and its capital, Belgrade.

One of the most dramatic events in the modern Balkans may go down very soon. But will it be a success- and if so, for whom?

Hague Tribunal prosecutor Carla Del Ponte has been angered by Serbia’s failure to capture and extradite war crimes suspects Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic. This, compounded by the mysterious death of trophy captive Slobodan Milosevic in March, has put Del Ponte perilously close to being deprived of the glory she has sought for so long. For despite many convictions, the failure to get the “big two” (convicted in absentia, no trial required) is an open sore for the prosecution, which is living on borrowed time.

As a service to our readers, Balkanalysis.com is providing an exhaustive summary and lists of the major political actors involved in the imminent campaign for parliamentary elections in Macedonia, to be held on July 5. According to law, the campaign can begin 20 days before the voting. The deadline for submitting nominees was May 30. The deadline for the procedure of checking all candidates is 7 June.

According to Makfax, 33 lists of candidates (including 2 submitted by group of voters and 31 by political parties and coalitions) were lodged to the State Elections Commission (SEC) by midnight on May 30. Citing SEC Spokesman Zoran Tanevski, the news agency added that as many as 2,620 candidates would be in the running for Parliament's 120 seats.

An indication of what lies ahead for the Balkans occurred recently in Novi Pazar, when Wahhabi fanatics successfully destroyed a concert held by a renowned Balkan ethno-music orchestra that appeals to people from many countries and ethnicities.

The violence was brazen and highly alarming, according to Belgrade’s B-92 which described the occurrence thus:

“…ten young men donning long beards, short pants and white hats broke up a concert of the Balkanika orchestra. The hooligans were dressed like members of the vehabit [sic] movement. They climbed up onto the stage and threw around the instruments that were set up for the musicians to play. One of the young men took over the microphone and told those attending the concert: ‘Brothers, go home, they are working against Islam here. This is Satan's work.’

By Mehmet Kalyoncu

Given the similarities in the nature of the defined threat, the US-led invasion of Saddam Hussein’s allegedly nuclear-aspiring Iraq and a possible US-led action against Ahmedinejad’s nuclear Iran might seem likely to have similar ramifications for Turkey strategically.

If the AKP government fails to work something out with the Bush administration during a possible nuclear Iran crisis, the Turkish government could be depicted as an impediment to action against the imminent threat posed by a fundamentalist Iranian state. In that case, Turkey would seem to be siding with radical Islamist Iran against the probable democratic alliance of the West. Thus the way the AKP government handles a possible Iran crisis, in relation to its special relationship with America, will greatly influence the public’s view of the AK Party- and hence its future fate in office.