Kerry's long shortlist for vice president. - By Michael Crowley - Slate Magazine
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John Kerry's Long ShortlistWho he'll pick as his running mate and why.
Posted Friday, May 28, 2004, at 11:34 AM ET
John Kerry is currently engaged in one of Washington's most elaborate Kabuki rituals: the hunt for a running mate. Every four years, campaigns put vast effort into flattering political allies, pandering to interest groups, generating media buzz, and spreading disinformation. Richard Nixon is said to have advised the elder George Bush in 1988: "Once you get it down to two or three people, see to it that a dozen or so names get out in the press. It'll be a sop to everyone on the list, and it will keep the press off the trail." The press was diverted so well that Bush's eventual choice of Dan Quayle triggered one of the madder feeding frenzies of recent memory.
Also confusing matters is that what used to be the chief rationales for picking a running mate are fading. It's been a while, for instance, since a running mate was chosen to carry a major state. Today's veepstakes involves more sophisticated factors. Here, then, is a taxonomy of some names in heavy circulation and why we're hearing them.
Bring It On!
If a central theme of John Kerry's candidacy is a fearless challenge to George W. Bush on national security, then why not add another set of (unthrown) medals to the ticket? The obvious choice here would be Wesley Clark, although his gaffe-plagued romp through the Democratic primaries is problematic. Clark's fizzle may also bode ill for former Marine Gen. Anthony Zinni, despite his new book eviscerating Bush's Iraq policy. Who wants to take a chance on another general without campaign trail experience? Still, merely floating these names helps remind the public that Democrats can be tough guys, too. Also on this list: former Sen. Max Cleland.
The Wise Men
Instead of a military man, Kerry could go for a policy-wonk father figure who understands today's global dangers—as Bush did in choosing Cheney last time. Topping this list is former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn, who now obsesses over weapons of mass destruction at the Nuclear Threat Institute. Nunn has the added benefit of being a Southerner, although he would add to the ticket another inconveniently long Senate voting record. (Among other things, Nunn opposed the first Gulf War, a reason he didn't run for president himself in 1992.) Also in this category is former New Hampshire GOP Sen. Warren Rudman who, like Nunn, has become a WMD specialist; former Indiana Rep. Lee Hamilton, now the nobly nonpartisan vice chairman of the independent Sept. 11 commission; and, if you can get past the plagiarism that killed his 1988 presidential bid, Delaware Sen. Joe Biden.
Base Drums
These choices would help whip up liberal Democrats, who are far more animated by Bush-hatred than by Kerry-worship. The most touted name in this category is Dick Gephardt, reportedly a top contender at the moment, whose authentic populism and miles-deep roots with labor unions and other party interest groups make him a fine signifier of liberal passion. Drawbacks include Gephardt's co-sponsorship of the Iraq resolution—heresy to some liberals—and the fact that he's already flopped twice on the presidential campaign trail. A long-shot choice is House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi, a prolific fund-raiser beloved by women's and gay-rights groups. But it's hard to imagine a man scraping the "Massachusetts liberal" image off his shoe teaming up with a San Francisco liberal (think of the gay-marriage jokes). A choice harder to attack demagogically would be Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin.
Diversify the Portfolio
The real veepstakes contenders are usually almost all white men, but diversity-minded candidates float names of women and minorities to please interest groups and liberals. Hence another name on everyone's short list is the charismatic New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, who might well excite the all-important Latino vote and help carry the Southwestern swing states of Nevada and New Mexico. Alas, Richardson carries a sherpa's load of baggage from his disastrous tenure as Energy secretary. Oft-mentioned women include two attractive swing-state senators: Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas and Mary Landrieu of Louisiana. But both have thin records, and Democrats strongly prefer not to defend any more southern Senate seats. Some African-Americans get talked about, including Georgia congressman and civil-rights hero John Lewis and South Carolina power-broker Jim Clyburn. Also on this list: Former OMB director Franklin Raines, Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, former New Hampshire Gov. Jeanne Shaheen.
Mr. Popularity
Given Kerry's charisma deficiency, he might want some fuel-injected charm at his side. John Edwards, whose blinding smile seduced so many crowds in the late primary season, could certainly help (if Kerry can forgive him for drawing out the primaries). Former senator and 9/11 commission member Bob Kerrey isn't nearly as warm and smooth, but he does offer McCain-like qualities of heroism and straight talk (and wouldn't Kerry-Kerrey have a cute ring!). The question here is whether Kerry could stomach having people like his running mate better than they like him. Other charmers: Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, Virginia Gov. Mark Warner.
They Don't Mean a Thing If They Ain't From a Swing
Several top contenders would never win a nationwide talent search but happen to hail from the right states. Hence the enduring appeal of Florida's two Democratic senators, Bill Nelson and Bob Graham. We won't bother rehashing Graham's obsessive-compulsive diaries and tragically self-destructed reputation, but it's all here. Nelson, meanwhile, offers the heroic patina of a former astronaut but less spark than a soggy matchbook. As a Catholic with a moderate profile on social issues, as well as a compelling biography, Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack could shore up Kerry with blue-collar voters, but is otherwise humdrum. Still, one bankable state could make the difference. And for the same egotistical reasons Kerry may spurn an Edwards, a reliable dullard could be just what he wants. Also on this list, though getting old: former Ohio Sen. John Glenn.
In Your Dreams
The biggest absurdity of the Kerry veepstakes has been the lavish attention given to some people with almost zero chance of joining his ticket. Exhibit A is John McCain, who says vehemently and repeatedly that he won't run with Kerry. But his name endures as Kerry allies, with cunning disingenuousness, repeat it to generate media coverage linking their man with America's favorite politician. The media, unable to resist a good McCain story, eagerly play along. (Witness last week's ridiculously overhyped Page One New York Times story, which spilled 250 breathless words before getting to McCain's buzz-killing reaction: "I have totally ruled it out.") There's also Hillary Clinton who, as usual, constitutes a strange and unique case. She may be the first frequently discussed VP contender who neither wants the position nor is wanted by the nominee. Yet Hillary is cheered on both by clueless liberal fans who don't realize how many enemies she'd bring out and by conservative haters who want to confirm their view of her as the Lady Macbeth of their fantasies. Again, the media happily goes along. No Hillary story is too stupid or far-fetched to merit a mention on Fox News or in a William Safire column. Also on this list: Former Clinton Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin.
Having said all this, it should be noted that this prognostication is almost sure to be wrong. After all, few people saw Al Gore's pick of Joe Lieberman coming, and everyone was blindsided when Dick Cheney's search for a Bush running mate turned up none other than Dick Cheney. Then, too, in 1996 it seemed preposterous that a crotchety fiscal conservative like Bob Dole could choose a flaky supply-sider like Jack Kemp. Maybe folks were too distracted by other big names then in circulation, like a young GOP rising star: Texas Gov. George W. Bush.
If you liked this Assessment column, check out Backstabbers, Crazed Geniuses, and Animals We Hate, a collection of our all-time funniest, meanest, sweetest, and weirdest profiles.
Michael Crowley is a senior editor at the
New
Republic.
Illustration by Charlie Powell.
Remarks from the Fray:
"Almost certainly wrong" is right. What is almost certain is that Kerry himself has not yet decided what he wants out of a Vice President.
He may have a good idea what he doesn't want, though. He will not want to be overshadowed by a running mate more appealing on the campaign trail than he is, which may rule out a lot of people but almost surely rules out John Edwards. Less obviously, Kerry will not want a running mate who would expect if elected to take over the role Vice President Cheney plays in the Bush administration -- no future President of either party is likely to give his Vice President that much influence again. This rules out Biden and Nunn, who would be more likely to seek Cabinet positions in their respective areas of interest (State for Biden, Defense for Nunn) that would permit them to exercise more influence than Kerry would allow his Vice President.
The cautious, sensitive Kerry may take quite some time to make this decision. His best choice, though, would be along traditional lines: someone who would do a modest amount of good and no harm to the campaign (ideally in a state or region Kerry is not assured of carrying anyway), who would not nourish the expectation of being a Deputy President but whose record suggests he would be a credible successor to Kerry, and who can stand up against the damaging Republican charge that national Democratic politicians are run by national Democratic interest groups.
Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana is Kerry's best choice.
--Zathras (To reply, click here)
The "I hate Bush" folks are Kerry's. Why should he pander to them? After all, the true Bush-Haters are going to vote for the person most likely to get Bush out of office. They don't have to love Kerry. The mere fact that he's not Bush is enough for them.
What Kerry has to do is find someone who appeals to the disaffected middle…
--DeaH (To reply, click here)
Everyone is saying that Edwards is the best choice for Kerry... That normally means exactly nothing, but I don't see Lurch having the stones to do something the Democratic party doesn't want or think is in his best interest...
That being said, Edwards isn't a bad pick... He opens up North Carolina and Georgia as swing states, and helps in Virginia and Tennessee. He also helps with the women vote -- which isn't that important since Lurch is over 6 ft -- because of his pretty smile. In truth, he is not that bad of a choice from a "future of the Country" aspect either... He's smart, thoughtful, and tries to remember the little guy while trying to maintain balance. The problem is he's a rookie, he's infinitely more likeable than Lurch, and he's admitted that he was wrong on a couple of votes when the worthless modern Democratic party pressed him to vote with Bush (No Child Left Behind, Iraq...) while Lurch is still desperately trying to explain the subtleties of why He was right in his vote though the bill was wrong...
I think the best pick would be Bob Graham... Graham locks Florida and opens up Georgia, but Graham also offers a lot of honesty and dignity to the ticket... He opens up a lot of elderly votes, and his likeability doesn't overshadow the anti-charismatic Lurch. He would normally hurt in the young vote -- not the most important demographic, especially when he's helping the elderly vote -- but the young are seeing their futures getting pissed away... I think that no-matter WHAT is selected the young vote will be split about the same: Largely in favor of whatever is running against Bush. Graham also is a very calm and experienced policy maker with experience across the board, and patience enough not to try to grab more than he's granted...
But the consensus says Edwards, so Lurch will too.
--tundra-yeti (To reply, click here)
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