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Ocean acidification in a geoengineering context - PubMed

  • ️Sun Jan 01 2012

Ocean acidification in a geoengineering context

Phillip Williamson et al. Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2012.

Abstract

Fundamental changes to marine chemistry are occurring because of increasing carbon dioxide (CO(2)) in the atmosphere. Ocean acidity (H(+) concentration) and bicarbonate ion concentrations are increasing, whereas carbonate ion concentrations are decreasing. There has already been an average pH decrease of 0.1 in the upper ocean, and continued unconstrained carbon emissions would further reduce average upper ocean pH by approximately 0.3 by 2100. Laboratory experiments, observations and projections indicate that such ocean acidification may have ecological and biogeochemical impacts that last for many thousands of years. The future magnitude of such effects will be very closely linked to atmospheric CO(2); they will, therefore, depend on the success of emission reduction, and could also be constrained by geoengineering based on most carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques. However, some ocean-based CDR approaches would (if deployed on a climatically significant scale) re-locate acidification from the upper ocean to the seafloor or elsewhere in the ocean interior. If solar radiation management were to be the main policy response to counteract global warming, ocean acidification would continue to be driven by increases in atmospheric CO(2), although with additional temperature-related effects on CO(2) and CaCO(3) solubility and terrestrial carbon sequestration.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.

Percentage changes in average global surface ocean ion concentrations resulting from up to a fourfold change (300% increase) in atmospheric carbon dioxide, compared with pre-industrial values and at an assumed uniform and constant upper ocean temperature of 18°C. Values for atmospheric CO2 change from 280 to 1120 ppm; bicarbonate ions from 1770 to 2120 μmol kg−1; carbonate ions from 225 to 81 μmol kg−1; and pH from 8.18 to 7.65 (where pH is defined as the negative decimal logarithm of the hydrogen ion activity, and a linear relationship is assumed between activity and concentration). Adapted from Royal Society [3].

Figure 2.
Figure 2.

Meta-analysis of the effect of pH decrease by 0.4 units on reproduction, photosynthesis, growth, calcification and survival of a wide range of marine organisms. Mean effect and 95% confidence limits calculated from log-transformed response ratios, here re-converted to a linear scale. Adapted from Kroeker et al. [43].

Figure 3.
Figure 3.

Conceptual representation of possible future ocean acidification impacts on planktonic and benthic organisms, with implications for ecosystems and ecosystem services. DMS, dimethylsulphide; DMSP, dimethylsulphoniopropionate; Ω, saturation state (for CaCO3). Image: T. Tyrrell and P. Williamson.

Figure 4.
Figure 4.

(a) The relationship between changes in global annual carbon emissions over the period 1800–2500 and (b) global mean surface pH. The pH stabilization levels of 8.10, 8.01, 7.94, 7.87, 7.82 and 7.70 correspond to atmospheric CO2 levels of 350, 450, 550, 650, 750 and 1000 ppm. Dotted lines labelled OSP (overshoot stabilization profile) show pathways requiring negative CO2 emissions (i.e. carbon dioxide removal geoengineering) to achieve atmospheric CO2 stabilization at 350 and 450 ppm; dashed lines labelled DSP (delayed stabilization profile) show delayed approach to emissions reductions to achieve stabilization at 450 and 550 ppm; solid lines labelled SP represent stabilization profiles. From Joos et al. [34], modified by permission of Oxford University Press.

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