2017 Preview: January - The Numbers

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: https://www.UnderworldBloodWars-Movie.com
Distributor: Sony Pictures
Release Date: January 6th, 2017
MPAA Rating: R for strong bloody violence, and some sexuality.
Source: Based on Folk Tale/Legend/Fairytale
Genre: Action
Keywords: Vampire, Werewolf, Monster, Betrayal, Urban Gothic
Directed By: Anna J. Foerster
Written By: Cory Goodman
Starring: Kate Beckinsale
Production Budget: Estimated at $40 million to $50 million
Box Office Potential: $40 million

It has been almost five years since last installment of this action / horror franchise hit theaters. That’s long enough that there’s a chance fans of the movies have moved on, as previously there had been an installment every three years. The critics have certainly moved on, as the early reviews for Blood Wars are terrible. The franchise has never been a critical darling, but 11% positive reviews are still the lower than any of the previous films had managed. Granted, the awful reviews don’t seem to have hurt the film’s box office performance internationally. In fact, the film has already made more than $40 million internationally, which could be more than it cost to make, while it has yet to open in Japan, Spain, Italy, and the U.K. It could do well enough that its domestic numbers are not necessary to break even. That’s the good news, because while it is expected to have the best weekend of the four wide releases / expansions, it isn’t expected to last in theaters very long. Not only do horror movies tend to have short legs, but there are three other films opening this month, one a week, so the direct competition will hurt.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: https://stxmovies.com/thebyebyeman/
Distributor: STX Entertainment
Release Date: January 13th, 2017
MPAA Rating: R for bloody horror violence, language and some sexuality.
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords: Supernatural, Spree Killer, Possessed, College, Haunted House
Directed By: Stacy Title
Written By: Jonathan Penner, Robert Damon
Starring: Douglas Smith, Lucien Laviscount, Cressida Bonas, Doug Jones
Production Budget: Reported at $6 million
Box Office Potential: $20 million

A low-budget horror film about a group of college students who discover a malevolent force that can possess a person and cause them to go on a killing spree. The only way to protect yourself is to not think about it or say its name. Of the four horror movies opening this month, this one has the least buzz and it is opening on the busiest weekend. Fortunately, it won’t need a massive opening to break even sometime during its home market run. Assuming the advertising budget isn’t triple its production budget and it can find some audience internationally, it should break even on VOD or some streaming service like Netflix.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: https://www.livebynight.movie/
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: December 25th, 2016 (Limited Release)
Release Date: January 13th, 2017 (Expands Wide)
MPAA Rating: R for strong violence, language throughout, and some sexuality/nudity.
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Drama
Keywords: Dysfunctional Family, Directing Yourself, Organized Crime, 1920s, 1930s, Prohibition Era
Directed By: Ben Affleck
Written By: Ben Affleck, Dennis Lehane
Starring: Ben Affleck
Production Budget: Reported at $65 million
Box Office Potential: $10 million

This is the latest film directed by Ben Affleck, which should give it an advantage at the box office, as his three previous directorial efforts all earned critical praise and the past two also earned a lot of box office success. However, this film’s reviews have gone from mixed to bad, which couldn’t have had a positive effect on its opening weekend. (Warner Bros. isn’t releasing box office numbers until January 3rd.) Like A Monster Calls above, if this film didn’t have a wide expansion already scheduled, then I would not assume it would expand wide enough to get to $1 million. It is a more marketable film, so that should help it at the box office, but it is also opening during the busiest weekend of the month and that will hurt.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: MonsterTrucksMovie.com/
Distributor: Paramount Pictures
Release Date: January 13th, 2017
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for action, peril, brief scary images, and some rude humor.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Adventure
Keywords: Monster, Monster Trucks, Friendly Alien on Earth, Development Hell
Directed By: Chris Wedge
Written By: Jonathan Aibel, Glenn Berger
Starring: Jane Levy, Lucas Till
Production Budget: Reported at $125 million
Box Office Potential: $25 million

In the final quarter of 2016, Paramount admitted to investors that they were going to have a $115 million write-down for Monster Trucks. The film cost $125 million to make and they expect to lose $115 million. What more do I need to say?

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: PatriotsDayFilm.com
Distributor: Lionsgate
Release Date: December 21st, 2016 (Limited Release)
Release Date: January 13th, 2017 (Expands Wide)
MPAA Rating: R for violence, realistically graphic injury images, language throughout and some drug use.
Source: Based on Real Life Events
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords: Boston, Terrorism, 2010s, Track and Field, Marathon Running, First Responders
Directed By: Peter Berg
Written By: Peter Berg, Matt Cook, Joshua Zetumer, Peter Berg, Matt Cook, Paul Tamasy, Eric Johnson
Starring: Mark Wahlberg
Production Budget: Estimated at $40 million to $50 million
Box Office Potential: $65 million

Patriots Day is a film based on the real life Boston Marathon bombing attack. Given its release strategy, I think the studio is hoping to tap into the same audience that swarmed to theaters to see American Sniper. I don’t think the studio is expecting to earn half of what American Sniper earned. Given the sheer number of other films opening or expanding wide this week, it likely won’t earn a quarter of that film’s box office. That said, it is by far the biggest release of the week and one of only two films opening this month that have a legitimate shot at $100 million. It’s a long shot, don’t get me wrong, but if it does become a $100 million hit, I won’t be that surprised.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: SilenceMovie.com
Distributor: Paramount Pictures
Release Date: December 23rd, 2016 (Limited Release)
Release Date: January 13th, 2017 (Expands Wide)
MPAA Rating: R for some disturbing violent content.
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Drama
Keywords: Japan, Christians, 1600s, Feudal Japan
Directed By: Martin Scorsese
Written By: Shusaku Endo, Jay Cocks
Starring: Andrew Garfield, Adam Driver
Production Budget: Reported at $47 million
Box Office Potential: $15 million

Silence is a film that many thought would be an Awards Season contender, but so far that hasn’t happened. The film got off to a great start in limited release with a theater average of over $32,000 in four theaters, but until we see how well it does in its second weekend, I’m not convinced it will open truly wide. Like the other Awards Season contenders with wide expansions this month, it could get a boost from the major nominations. The week it comes out, the PGAs, DGAs, and BAFTA nominations are announced. If the film does start picking up major Awards Season nominations, then it could stick around in theaters long enough to earn $50 million, or more. On the other hand, it could slip up this weekend and struggle to expand to 1,000 theaters disappearing before it reaches $10 million. The above prediction is a weighted average of the two extremes.

Last Minute Update: This film’s wide expansion was pushed back a week to the 13th. The 13th was already the busiest week of the month and now it is even busier. It likely won’t expand truly wide, because there won’t be enough theaters for it to expand into. It could also hurt some of the other films due to the added competition.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: SleeplessMovie.com/
Distributor: Open Road
Release Date: January 13th, 2017
MPAA Rating: R for strong violence and language throughout.
Source: Based on Movie
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords: Police life, Kidnap, Rescue, Organized Crime, Corrupt Cops, Remake, Foreign-Language Remake, Las Vegas, Internal Affairs
Directed By: Baran bo Odar
Written By: Andrea Berloff
Starring: Jamie Foxx
Production Budget: Estimate at $30 million to $50 million
Box Office Potential: $40 million

Jamie Foxx stars as a cop with criminal connections who has to rescue his son when he gets kidnapped. This is a typical January release; i.e. it is opening with very little buzz and it is just hoping to not get lost in the crowd. On the positive side, it is opening on MLK weekend and Jamie Foxx has more than a few hits under his belt. Perhaps it will be a surprise midlevel hit. It will need some louder buzz and good reviews to get there. In other words, it is too soon to tell, but I’m not overly optimistic.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: TheFounderFilm.com/
Distributor: Weinstein Co.
Release Date: December 31st, 2016 (Limited Release)
Release Date: January 20th, 2017 (Expands Wide)
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for brief strong language.
Source: Based on Real Life Events
Genre: Drama
Keywords: Food, Restaurants, Biography, Relationships Gone Wrong, Entrepreneur, Epilogue
Directed By: John Lee Hancock
Written By: Robert D. Siegel
Starring: Michael Keaton
Production Budget: Reported at $7 million
Box Office Potential: $20 million

Michael Keaton plays Ray Kroc, the man who didn’t found McDonalds. He just became a business partner with the actual founders and pushed them out of the company. It is being released by Weinstein Co., which is not good news for the film’s box office chances, as the distributor has been on a year-long losing streak. Worse still, the film’s reviews are good enough for limited release, but they are not good enough to win awards, so it could get a reputation as busted Oscar-bait. The film opened on Saturday, but it is an Oscar-qualifying run, which means there could have been very limited screeners only on that day. If so, it will have no impact on its chances to expand wide. If it is a limited release, then it will need a theater average of at least $20,000 to expand truly wide.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: SplitMovie.com
Distributor: Universal
Release Date: January 20th, 2017
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for for disturbing thematic content and behavior, violence and some language.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Horror
Keywords: Kidnap, Multiple Personality, Mental Illness, Villain's Point of View
Directed By: M. Night Shyamalan
Written By: M. Night Shyamalan
Starring: James McAvoy, Anya Taylor Joy, Jessica Sula, Haley Lu Richardson
Production Budget: Estimated at $10 million to $20 million
Box Office Potential: $35 million

James McAvoy plays a man with over twenty different personalities who kidnaps three teenage girls, Anya Taylor Joy, Jessica Sula, and Haley Lu Richardson. The three girls have to learn about his various personalities and figure out which ones would be willing to help them escape, while avoiding the wrath of his more violent ones.

That’s an interesting setup and M. Night Shyamalan has had some recent success in this genre writing Devil and writing and directing The Visit. Both of these films earned a profit sometime during their home market runs. On the downside, there are four horror films opening this month and two of them are part of long-running franchises. This might mean this one will slip between the cracks. Fortunately, it likely didn’t cost a lot to make, so it will break even eventually.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: ReturnOfXanderCage.com
Distributor: Paramount Pictures
Release Date: January 20th, 2017
MPAA Rating: Not Yet Rated - Very likely PG-13
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Action
Keywords: Delayed Sequel, Sequels With Returning Stars, Secret Agent, Extreme Sports, Out of Retirement, Faked Death, Conspiracy Theory
Directed By: D.J. Caruso, Rob Cohen
Written By: F. Scott Frazier, Chad St. John, Rich Wilkes
Starring: Vin Diesel, Donnie Yen
Production Budget: $60 million to $80 million
Box Office Potential: $75 million

xXx: Return of Xander Cage is one of three delayed sequels opening this month. The first film in the xXx franchise came out in 2002 and earned over $260 million worldwide. The second film didn’t have Vin Diesel as the star and it struggled, to be polite. Vin Diesel returns for this film and most think it will bounce back. It might even top the original at the worldwide box office. It certainly has an international cast, which should help draw in audiences in China, for example. I think it will barely earn more than half of what the first film made, but then earn around $200 million internationally, which will be enough to justify a fourth film in the franchise.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: ADogsPurposeMovie.com/
Distributor: Universal
Release Date: January 27th, 2017
MPAA Rating: PG for thematic elements and some peril.
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Comedy
Keywords: Animal Lead, Talking Animals, Death of a Pet, Reincarnation, Relationships Gone Wrong, Exes in Love, Romance, Police life, Coming of Age, Voiceover/Narration, 1960s, 1980s, 2010s, 1990s, 1970s, Same Role, Multiple Actors
Directed By: Lasse Hallström
Written By: Bruce W. Cameron, Audrey Wells
Starring: Josh Gad
Production Budget: Estimated at $30 million to $40 million
Box Office Potential: $60 million

A movie about a dog, voiced by Josh Gad, who is reincarnated over and over again all the time learning more about what it’s ultimate purpose is. This is a tearjerker. There’s no way around that. On the other hand, there hasn’t been a really good tearjerker that has come out for a while, so there should be built up demand. This is certainly the only film like this coming out all month, so it won’t have to split fans of the genre with any other film and this will help it at the box office. I think this film is going to be a sleeper hit; it won’t open in first place, but it will have longer legs than any of the other films that are debuting this week.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Gold-Film.com
Distributor: Weinstein Co.
Release Date: January 27th, 2017
MPAA Rating: R for language throughout and some sexuality/nudity.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Drama
Keywords: Treasure Hunters, Indonesia
Directed By: Stephen Gaghan
Written By: John Zinman, Patrick Massett
Starring: Matthew McConaughey, Edgar Ramirez
Production Budget: Estimated at $30 million to $40 million
Box Office Potential: $15 million

I’m not convinced this film is opening truly wide. It is being released by Weinstein Co. and the distributor is struggling, to say the least. Furthermore, there was some talk it would get an Oscar-qualifying run late in December, but its early reviews are bad. I’m not saying they are bad for an Oscar contender; I’m saying they would be bad for a mindless action film. Granted, there are only six reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, so things could get better, but that’s not a bet I’m willing to make. I wouldn’t be surprised if the film opens in select cities, or gets pushed back a few months.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: SonyPictures.com/Movies/ResidentEvilTheFinalChapter/
Distributor: Sony Pictures
Release Date: January 27th, 2017
MPAA Rating: R for sequences of violence throughout.
Source: Based on Game
Genre: Action
Keywords: Delayed Sequel, Corporate Malfeasance, Zombies, Post Apocalypse, 3-D, 3-D - Shot in 3-D, Non-Chronological, End of the World
Directed By: Paul W.S. Anderson
Written By: Paul W.S. Anderson
Starring: Milla Jovovich
Production Budget: Estimated at $60 million to $70 million
Box Office Potential: $40 million

This is the sixth installment in the Resident Evil franchise, a franchise that began almost exactly 15 years ago. The films have never been monster hits here, but did well enough to justify making more movies. However, the last two installments were actually big hits internationally and likely broke even just in their international markets. This is good news for the studio, but bad news for the film’s domestic numbers. I think Sony is banking on the film doing really well worldwide and they are not going to bother pushing it really hard domestically, because their advertising dollars would be better spent elsewhere. Also, this is the fourth weekend in a row with a horror movie and there are three or four horror movies opening in February, so even fans of the genre might be burned out at this point.