2018 Preview: August - The Numbers

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: TheSpyWhoDumpedMe.movie
Distributor: Lionsgate
Release Date: August 3rd, 2018
MPAA Rating: R for violence, language throughout, some crude sexual material and graphic nudity.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Comedy
Keywords: Los Angeles, C.I.A., Relationships Gone Wrong, Hitmen, Exes in Love, Secret Agent, Fugitive / On the Run
Directed By: Susanna Fogel
Written By: Susanna Fogel, David Iserson
Starring: Mila Kunis, Kate McKinnon, Justin Theroux, Sam Heughan
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $30 million to $50 million
Box Office Potential: $55 million

Mila Kunis stars in this movie as a woman who learns her ex-boyfriend is back in town. She also learns he was an undercover CIA spy and there’s a bunch of hitmen after him. Now she and her friend, Kate McKinnon, are wrapped up in whatever mess he’s created.

This is an R-rated action comedy that reminds me of Spy!. However, it doesn’t have nearly as much box office potential. If The Spy Who Dumped Me earns just half as much as Spy! did, then I think the studio would be happy. I’m not 100% sure if it will get there, but I think it will be a solid midlevel hit and should break even relatively early in its home market run.

Last minute update: The early reviews have been all over the place, but they are currently 60% positive. If they remain in the overall positive range, then its box office chances will improve.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: DogDaysTheFilm.com
Distributor: LD Entertainment
Release Date: August 10th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG for rude and suggestive content, and for language.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Drama
Keywords: Segments, Ensemble, Animal Lead, Romance
Directed By: Ken Marino
Written By: Elissa Matsueda, Erica Oyama
Starring: Nina Dobrev, Vanessa Hudgens, Adam Pally, Eva Longoria, Rob Corddry, Tone Bell, Jon Bass, Michael Cassidy, Thomas Lennon, Tig Notaro, Finn Wolfhard, Ron Cephas Jones
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $20 million to $30 million
Box Office Potential: $25 million

A family friendly romantic film about a group of people, each of whom connects with someone else thanks to their dogs. Normally a release like this would be considered counter-programming, but it could actually be the biggest hit of the weekend. It will benefit from the large ensemble cast, which means for most people already in the target audience, there will be at least one or two cast members that will make them extra interested in the movie. Additionally, the other two movies opening wide this week share a significant portion of their target audience and that’s going to hurt them at the box office. On the other hand, it is being released by the smallest studio and that could result in it missing the top five during its opening weekend and disappearing. Unfortunately, the low end of expectations seems most likely.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: TheMeg.movie
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: August 10th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for action/peril, bloody images and some language.
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Action
Keywords: Animals Gone Bad, Underwater, Exes in Love, Rescue, Dishonorable Discharge, Redemption
Directed By: Jon Turteltaub
Written By: Dean Georgaris, Jon Hoeber, Erich Hoeber, Steve Alten
Starring: Jason Statham, Li Bingbing, Rainn Wilson, Ruby Rose, Winston Chao, Cliff Curtis
Production Budget: Reported at $150 million
Box Office Potential: $45 million

A horror / action film about a giant Megalodon attacking people. It’s a Chinese co-production and it is clearly going for that market more than the domestic market. It had better be a huge hit in China, because there’s little hope it will put a dent in its $150 million production budget here. Obviously the studio would like the film to be a hit here and it does have the loudest buzz of the three wide releases debuting this weekend. Films like The Shallows and 47 Meters Down show there is an audience for killer shark movies, but that audience is in the $40 million to $60 million range, not the $100 million plus range that this film would need to earn to be a hit here.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: SlenderMan.movie
Distributor: Sony Pictures
Release Date: August 10th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for disturbing images, sequences of terror, thematic elements and language including some crude sexual references.
Source: Based on Folk Tale/Legend/Fairytale
Genre: Horror
Keywords: Supernatural, Missing Child, Mental Hospital, Mind Control
Directed By: Sylvain White
Written By: David Birke, Eric Knudsen
Starring: Joey King, Julia Goldani Telles, Jaz Sinclair, Annalise Basso, Talitha Bateman
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $10 million or less
Box Office Potential: $30 million

This is a horror movie based on an Internet meme that peaked many years ago. A lot of people think this film will be the biggest hit of the week, and by a large margin. I just don’t see it. Granted, Annabelle: Creation, which opened this weekend last year, was the biggest hit of the month and cleared $100 million domestically. However, that film was part of a franchise and had a huge built-in audience, while this film was saddled with a weak first trailer that really hurt its buzz. Furthermore, it shares a significant portion of its audience with The Meg. I don’t think it’s going to bomb, but I don’t think it will be the biggest hit of the weekend either.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Crazyrichasiansmovie.com/
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: August 15th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for some suggestive content and language.
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Comedy
Keywords: Singapore, Asian-Americans, Romance, You Can't Go Home Again, Dysfunctional Family, Cross-Class Romance, Culture Clash
Directed By: Jon M. Chu
Written By: Peter Chiarelli, Adele Lim, Kevin Kwan
Starring: Constance Wu, Henry Golding
Production Budget: $30 million
Box Office Potential: $55 million

Constance Wu stars as Rachel, a woman who has been dating Nick for about a year when he asks her to accompany him back to Singapore for his best friend’s wedding. On the way, she learns he’s crazy rich. When they get there, she also learns Nick’s mother hates her, because she doesn’t think she’s good enough for her son.

There are not a lot of films made by Hollywood studios featuring a predominately Asian cast and that has caused the film to generate a lot of buzz in certain circles. It also makes my job a lot harder, because there are so few films to compare it to. I’ve heard some very positive buzz about the film’s quality and there’s no direct competition in theaters, so I think it will be a surprise hit.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Mile22.movie
Distributor: STX Entertainment
Release Date: August 17th, 2018
MPAA Rating:
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Action
Keywords: C.I.A., Demoted, Indonesia, Death of a Son or Daughter, Revenge, Crime Boss, Organized Crime, Bounty/Price on one's Head, Fugitive / On the Run, Corrupt Cops, Betrayal
Directed By: Peter Berg
Written By: Graham Roland, Lea Carpenter
Starring: Mark Wahlberg, Iko Uwais, John Malkovich, Lauren Cohan, Ronda Rousey
Production Budget: $35 million
Box Office Potential: $45 million

An action film set in Asia, so it can attract the growing Asian market. Skyscraper tried the same thing and it did not go well here. Mile 22 has much weaker star power and a much worse release date. That said, its production budget is a mere fraction of what Skyscraper cost to make, so if it can do half as well at the box office, it will still break even.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: ALXMovie.com/
Distributor: Global Road
Release Date: August 24th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG for sci-fi action/peril, suggestive material, thematic elements and some language.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Drama
Keywords: Scientific Experiment Gone Awry, Robot, Artificial Intelligence, Animal Lead, Social Outcast
Directed By: Oliver Daly
Written By: Oliver Daly
Starring: Alex Neustaedter, Dorian Kingi
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $40 million to $60 million
Box Office Potential: $25 million

This is a prototypical August dump. It’s a movie about a boy and his dog, only his dog is a highly advanced robot and the scientists who made him want it back. I could see this being an okay movie for kids, except the “boy” in the movie is late teens, at the youngest. It would have made more sense to make the character 10 to 13 years old, as that would be the proper target audience for a film like this. I think the studio realized their mistake, which is why they are dumping the film in theaters in late August.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: TheHappyTimeMurders.movie
Distributor: STX Entertainment
Release Date: August 24th, 2018
MPAA Rating: R for strong crude and sexual content and language throughout, and some drug material.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Black Comedy
Keywords: Puppets in a Live Action World, Private Investigator, Serial Killer, Police Detective, Murder Mystery, Framed, Fugitive / On the Run, Buddy Cop, Death of a Sibling
Directed By: Brian Henson
Written By: Todd Berger, Erich Hoeber, Jon Hoeber, Dee Robertsn, Melissa McCarthy, Todd Berger, Dee Robertsn
Starring: Melissa McCarthy, Bill Barretta
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $30 million to $40 million
Box Office Potential: $45 million

This movie takes place in a world where humans and puppets live side-by-side, but puppets are considered second class citizens. When the puppets who used to work on a kids show, The Happytime Gang, start getting themselves murdered, a cop, Melissa McCarthy, a human, must team up with her ex-partner, Bill Barretta, a puppet, and investigate.

This is another prototypical August dump release. It’s a movie that was a risk with high upside, but obviously something went wrong, or it wouldn’t be coming out now. That said, it is unique enough that I think it will draw in curious moviegoers and could even become a midlevel hit.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Searching.movie
Distributor: Sony Pictures
Release Date: August 24th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for thematic content, some drug and sexual references, and for language.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords: Missing Person, Missing Child, Dysfunctional Family, Internet, Unbelieving Police
Directed By: Aneesh Chaganty
Written By: Aneesh Chaganty, Sev Ohanian
Starring: John Cho, Debra Messing
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at under $10
Box Office Potential: $15 million

John Cho stars as a father whose 16-year old daughter has gone missing. When there are no leads, he checks his daughter’s laptop and discovers he didn’t know her very well.

Again, a prototypical August dump. The movie is shot from the perspective of the laptop, which is an interesting hook. However, if the end result lived up to that hook, then the film would have gotten a better release date. Furthermore, there are some reports that the movie is opening in limited release on the 24th before expanding wide on the 31st. If that’s the case, then it will likely struggle even more, because this is not the kind of film that does well in limited release.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Kin.movie
Distributor: Lionsgate
Release Date: August 31st, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for gun violence and intense action, suggestive material, language, thematic elements and drinking
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Action
Keywords: Alien Encounters, Gangs, Life on the Outside, Young Child Dealing with the Death of a Parent, Fugitive / On the Run, Death of a Sibling, Revenge, Money Troubles, FBI, Strippers / Stripping, Adopted Family
Directed By: Jonathan Baker, Josh Baker
Written By: Jonathan Baker, Josh Baker, Daniel Casey, Jonathan Baker, Josh Baker
Starring: Myles Truitt
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $20 million to $30 million
Box Office Potential: $20 million

Myles Truitt plays a young boy who finds an alien weapon and along with his brother goes on the run from both the aliens and a crime boss. The trailer isn’t bad, but the buzz is quiet, even compared to the other late August releases, so quiet that I’m not sure it is getting a truly wide release.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: OperationFinaleFilm.com
Distributor: MGM
Release Date: August 29th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for disturbing thematic content and related violent images, and for some language.
Source: Based on Real Life Events
Genre: Drama
Keywords: Nazis Outside of World War II, World War II, Holocaust, Secret Agent, 1960s, Argentina
Directed By: Chris Weitz
Written By: Matthew Orton
Starring: Ben Kingsley, Oscar Isaac
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $30 million to $40 million
Box Office Potential: $15 million

This film was originally set for a September release, but it was moved up to late August due to good test screenings. That doesn’t make a lot of sense. There’s less good competition this weekend, but that’s because this is a terrible weekend to release a movie. It opens on Wednesday, so maybe this will give it a boost, as it has a two full days by itself. Or, it will flop, because not enough people will know it is a Wednesday debut. Given it’s release date, I’m willing to bet it will flop.