Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to step down next month

But at home, he faltered. Public anger over his handling of two major scandals involving his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and rising inflation prompted him to announce Wednesday that he would not seek reelection as the LDP’s leader next month, which will automatically bring an end to his tenure as prime minister.

“Trust in politics, and gaining trust from the people, is important,” Kishida said at a news conference.

“I have come to this decision because I believe that the first step to show that the LDP has changed is for me to step down,” he said. “As the ruling party, I hope for the LDP to earn the trust of the people, and lead a dignified path in advancing its policies with the people’s understanding and sympathy.”

Kishida’s decision will not lead to a general election but instead triggers an open race within his party to become the next prime minister of the world’s fourth-largest economy. His successor will face a steep challenge in rebuilding public trust, experts say.

“I think the public will give Prime Minister Kishida a certain amount of credit, given the fact that he stepped down gracefully,” said Yu Uchiyama, professor of political science at the University of Tokyo. “However … in order for the LDP to regain a certain amount of trust, they will need to elect a leader who can give a clear impression of change.”

His successor is not likely to fundamentally alter Japan’s foreign policy, security alliance with the United States or its plans to bolster its defense capabilities, analysts say. The ruling party has been in power almost continuously for nearly seven decades, and believes in a strong U.S.-Japan alliance.

Although the LDP is expected to maintain continuity in its foreign policy, the next prime minister could bring a “feistier” sensibility to managing the alliance, said Tobias Harris, an expert on Japanese politics and founder of Japan Foresight, a consultancy.

Potential successors include continuity candidates such as Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, who would become Japan’s first female prime minister; Minister for Economic Security Sanae Takaichi, a hard-line nationalist unlikely to pursue Kishida’s effort to improve relations with South Korea; and former defense minister Shigeru Ishiba, who has called for Japan to take a more active role in deciding how American forces are deployed here.

The slate of likely contenders is diverse and reflects broader political turmoil in the party that could have implications for whether Japan will deliver on the promises made under Kishida, Harris said.

“For all the promises and pledges that you’ve gotten from Kishida over the last few years, you just can’t assume that you’re going to have a Japanese government that … will have the strength domestically to deliver on everything,” Harris said.

Kishida’s leadership

Kishida, 67, is Japan’s third prime minister since 2012. He followed his father and grandfather, who were both lawmakers, into politics, winning his father’s seat in Hiroshima upon his death in 1993.

He moved up the ranks of the LDP and was the longest-serving postwar foreign minister under former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and became prime minister in October 2021.

Kishida on Wednesday touted his major accomplishments as prime minister — including hosting the Group of Seven nations in his family’s hometown of Hiroshima, improving relations with South Korea and building ties with “Global South” nations wary of China’s military and economic rise.

Less than five months after Kishida took office in October 2021, Moscow invaded Ukraine. Kishida abandoned Japan’s efforts to mend ties with Russia to resolve a long-standing territorial dispute and joined Western countries in imposing sanctions on Moscow.

Instead, Kishida has become an outspoken critic of Russia and its leader, Vladimir Putin, coining a phrase echoed by U.S. allies and partners: “Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow.”

If Russia prevails, “it would show that force can actually bring benefits, even when breaking international law. If so, what would happen to East Asia? We must not allow any country to receive the wrong message,” Kishida said in an April interview with The Washington Post.

On Wednesday, Kishida also highlighted the first-of-its-kind summit with President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol at Camp David last August, during which the three leaders announced new measures on defense, technology, education and other key areas of cooperation — marking a “new era” to the trilateral relationship.

Japan is now at the center of the U.S. strategy to counter China through what American officials call a “latticework” of groupings between like-minded nations, and Kishida has played a key role in cementing this strategy. The United States and Japan are now taking their first concrete steps toward a more robust military partnership.

“Both he and the president have decided not to seek reelection. But the Biden-Kishida era will be remembered as a golden era in the U.S.-Japan alliance,” U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel said in an interview Wednesday. “On the security front, diplomatic front, economic front, political front, the alliance has been totally modernized.”

Yet despite his diplomatic achievements, Kishida faced mounting troubles at home, not least on the economic front.

Despite his promises to usher in an era of economic growth under a plan dubbed the “New Form of Capitalism,” the public grew increasingly frustrated with the economy during his tenure.

The weak yen has led to higher import prices that were passed onto Japanese consumers. That contributed to inflation after decades of deflation, and the wage increases have not kept pace.

Kishida’s party has also been mired in political scandals that undermined his leadership.

Last December, prosecutors launched a criminal investigation into allegations that dozens of LDP lawmakers had failed to disclose income they received from fundraising events. It was one of the biggest controversies to hit the ruling party in decades. Several cabinet members resigned, and public support for Kishida began plummeting.

In response, the LDP said it would dissolve its factions and 39 members of the party were punished. But those steps failed to reassure the public that the party had made true reforms.

Before the fundraising scandal, the LDP had already been facing ongoing public scrutiny over its ties with the Unification Church, which came to light in the aftermath of the 2022 assassination of Abe, then the former prime minister.

The alleged shooter said he was upset over Abe’s ties to the Unification Church, to which the man’s mother had donated large amounts of family money.

Kishida on Wednesday acknowledged that the corruption scandals had destroyed the public’s trust in his party and that it was necessary for him to step down for the public to regain confidence.

But experts say the LDP has a long way to go, even after Kishida leaves office.

“Unlike scandals centered on a certain individual, for both the Unification Church and fundraising scandals, the problem was within the LDP as a whole,” said Shinichi Nishikawa, a political science professor at Meiji University. “So it is unlikely that trust in the LDP will be restored anytime soon, regardless of who becomes the leader of the LDP.”

Kishida’s announcement Wednesday comes after historically low approval ratings, and surveys that showed an overwhelming majority thought Kishida should be replaced as LDP leader in the September election.

The LDP will on Aug. 20 announce the date of next month’s LDP leadership race. Kishida will remain party leader until a new leader is elected.