Causes of climate change - Wikiwand

Greenhouse gases

Greenhouse gases are transparent to sunlight, and thus allow it to pass through the atmosphere to heat the Earth's surface. The Earth radiates it as heat, and greenhouse gases absorb a portion of it. This absorption slows the rate at which heat escapes into space, trapping heat near the Earth's surface and warming it over time.^[20] While water vapour and clouds are the biggest contributors to the greenhouse effect, they primarily change as a function of temperature. Therefore, they are considered to be feedbacks that change climate sensitivity. On the other hand, gases such as CO₂, tropospheric ozone,^[21] CFCs and nitrous oxide are added or removed independently from temperature. Hence, they are considered to be external forcings that change global temperatures.^{[22][23]: 742}

Human activity since the Industrial Revolution (about 1750), mainly extracting and burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas), has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, resulting in a radiative imbalance. Over the past 150 years human activities have released increasing quantities of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. By 2019, the concentrations of CO₂ and methane had increased by about 48% and 160%, respectively, since 1750.^[29] These CO₂ levels are higher than they have been at any time during the last 2 million years. Concentrations of methane are far higher than they were over the last 800,000 years.^[30]

This has led to increases in mean global temperature, or global warming. The likely range of human-induced surface-level air warming by 2010–2019 compared to levels in 1850–1900 is 0.8 °C to 1.3 °C, with a best estimate of 1.07 °C. This is close to the observed overall warming during that time of 0.9 °C to 1.2 °C. Temperature changes during that time were likely only ±0.1 °C due to natural forcings and ±0.2 °C due to variability in the climate.^{[31][31]: 3, 443}

Global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 were equivalent to 59 billion tonnes of CO₂. Of these emissions, 75% was CO₂, 18% was methane, 4% was nitrous oxide, and 2% was fluorinated gases.^[32]: 7

Carbon dioxide

CO₂ emissions primarily come from burning fossil fuels to provide energy for transport, manufacturing, heating, and electricity.^[33] Additional CO₂ emissions come from deforestation and industrial processes, which include the CO₂ released by the chemical reactions for making cement, steel, aluminum, and fertiliser.^[34]

CO₂ is absorbed and emitted naturally as part of the carbon cycle, through animal and plant respiration, volcanic eruptions, and ocean-atmosphere exchange.^[35] Human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels and changes in land use (see below), release large amounts of carbon to the atmosphere, causing CO₂ concentrations in the atmosphere to rise.^[35][36]

The high-accuracy measurements of atmospheric CO₂ concentration, initiated by Charles David Keeling in 1958, constitute the master time series documenting the changing composition of the atmosphere.^[37] These data, known as the Keeling Curve, have iconic status in climate change science as evidence of the effect of human activities on the chemical composition of the global atmosphere.^[37]

Keeling's initial 1958 measurements showed 313 parts per million by volume (ppm). Atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, commonly written "ppm", are measured in parts-per-million by volume (ppmv). In May 2019, the concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere reached 415 ppm. The last time when it reached this level was 2.6–5.3 million years ago. Without human intervention, it would be 280 ppm.^[38]

In 2022–2024, the concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere increased faster than ever before according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, as a result of sustained emissions and El Niño conditions.^[39]

Methane and nitrous oxide

Methane emissions come from livestock, manure, rice cultivation, landfills, wastewater, and coal mining, as well as oil and gas extraction.^[41] Nitrous oxide emissions largely come from the microbial decomposition of fertiliser.^[42]

Methane and to a lesser extent nitrous oxide are also major forcing contributors to the greenhouse effect. The Kyoto Protocol lists these together with hydrofluorocarbon (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆),^[43] which are entirely artificial gases, as contributors to radiative forcing. The chart at right attributes anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to eight main economic sectors, of which the largest contributors are power stations (many of which burn coal or other fossil fuels), industrial processes, transportation fuels (generally fossil fuels), and agricultural by-products (mainly methane from enteric fermentation and nitrous oxide from fertilizer use).^[44]

Aerosols

Air pollution, in the form of aerosols, affects the climate on a large scale.^[46][47] Aerosols scatter and absorb solar radiation. From 1961 to 1990, a gradual reduction in the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface was observed. This phenomenon is popularly known as global dimming,^[48] and is primarily attributed to sulfate aerosols produced by the combustion of fossil fuels with heavy sulfur concentrations like coal and bunker fuel.^[9] Smaller contributions come from black carbon, organic carbon from combustion of fossil fuels and biofuels, and from anthropogenic dust.^{[49][50][51][52][53]} Globally, aerosols have been declining since 1990 due to pollution controls, meaning that they no longer mask greenhouse gas warming as much.^[54][9]

Aerosols also have indirect effects on the Earth's energy budget. Sulfate aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei and lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets.^[55] They also reduce the growth of raindrops, which makes clouds more reflective to incoming sunlight.^[56] Indirect effects of aerosols are the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing.^[57]

While aerosols typically limit global warming by reflecting sunlight, black carbon in soot that falls on snow or ice can contribute to global warming. Not only does this increase the absorption of sunlight, it also increases melting and sea-level rise.^[58] Limiting new black carbon deposits in the Arctic could reduce global warming by 0.2 °C by 2050.^[59]

Land surface changes

According to Food and Agriculture Organization, around 30% of Earth's land area is largely unusable for humans (glaciers, deserts, etc.), 26% is forests, 10% is shrubland and 34% is agricultural land.^[61] Deforestation is the main land use change contributor to global warming,^[62] Between 1750 and 2007, about one-third of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions were from changes in land use - primarily from the decline in forest area and the growth in agricultural land.^[63] primarily deforestation.^[64] as the destroyed trees release CO₂, and are not replaced by new trees, removing that carbon sink.^[65] Between 2001 and 2018, 27% of deforestation was from permanent clearing to enable agricultural expansion for crops and livestock. Another 24% has been lost to temporary clearing under the shifting cultivation agricultural systems. 26% was due to logging for wood and derived products, and wildfires have accounted for the remaining 23%.^[66] Some forests have not been fully cleared, but were already degraded by these impacts. Restoring these forests also recovers their potential as a carbon sink.^[67]

Local vegetation cover impacts how much of the sunlight gets reflected back into space (albedo), and how much heat is lost by evaporation. For instance, the change from a dark forest to grassland makes the surface lighter, causing it to reflect more sunlight. Deforestation can also modify the release of chemical compounds that influence clouds, and by changing wind patterns.^[68] In tropic and temperate areas the net effect is to produce significant warming, and forest restoration can make local temperatures cooler.^[67] At latitudes closer to the poles, there is a cooling effect as forest is replaced by snow-covered (and more reflective) plains.^[68] Globally, these increases in surface albedo have been the dominant direct influence on temperature from land use change. Thus, land use change to date is estimated to have a slight cooling effect.^[69]

Livestock-associated emissions

More than 18% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are attributed to livestock and livestock-related activities such as deforestation and increasingly fuel-intensive farming practices.^[70] Specific attributions to the livestock sector include:

• 9% of global anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions
• 35–40% of global anthropogenic methane emissions (chiefly due to enteric fermentation and manure)
• 64% of global anthropogenic nitrous oxide emissions, chiefly due to fertilizer use.^[70]

Carbon sinks

The Earth's surface absorbs CO₂ as part of the carbon cycle. Despite the contribution of deforestation to greenhouse gas emissions, the Earth's land surface, particularly its forests, remain a significant carbon sink for CO₂. Land-surface sink processes, such as carbon fixation in the soil and photosynthesis, remove about 29% of annual global CO₂ emissions.^[72] The ocean also serves as a significant carbon sink via a two-step process. First, CO₂ dissolves in the surface water. Afterwards, the ocean's overturning circulation distributes it deep into the ocean's interior, where it accumulates over time as part of the carbon cycle. Over the last two decades, the world's oceans have absorbed 20 to 30% of emitted CO₂.^[6]: 450 Thus, around half of human-caused CO₂ emissions have been absorbed by land plants and by the oceans.^[73]

This fraction of absorbed emissions is not static. If future CO₂ emissions decrease, the Earth will be able to absorb up to around 70%. If they increase substantially, it'll still absorb more carbon than now, but the overall fraction will decrease to below 40%.^[74] This is because climate change increases droughts and heat waves that eventually inhibit plant growth on land, and soils will release more carbon from dead plants when they are warmer.^[75][76] The rate at which oceans absorb atmospheric carbon will be lowered as they become more acidic and experience changes in thermohaline circulation and phytoplankton distribution.^[77][78][79]

Climate change feedbacks

The response of the climate system to an initial forcing is modified by feedbacks: increased by "self-reinforcing" or "positive" feedbacks and reduced by "balancing" or "negative" feedbacks.^[81] The main reinforcing feedbacks are the water-vapour feedback, the ice–albedo feedback, and the net effect of clouds.^[82][83] The primary balancing mechanism is radiative cooling, as Earth's surface gives off more heat to space in response to rising temperature.^[84] In addition to temperature feedbacks, there are feedbacks in the carbon cycle, such as the fertilizing effect of CO₂ on plant growth.^[85]

Uncertainty over feedbacks, particularly cloud cover,^[86] is the major reason why different climate models project different magnitudes of warming for a given amount of emissions.^[87] As air warms, it can hold more moisture. Water vapour, as a potent greenhouse gas, holds heat in the atmosphere.^[82] If cloud cover increases, more sunlight will be reflected back into space, cooling the planet. If clouds become higher and thinner, they act as an insulator, reflecting heat from below back downwards and warming the planet.^[88]

Another major feedback is the reduction of snow cover and sea ice in the Arctic, which reduces the reflectivity of the Earth's surface.^[89] More of the Sun's energy is now absorbed in these regions, contributing to amplification of Arctic temperature changes.^[90] Arctic amplification is also thawing permafrost, which releases methane and CO₂ into the atmosphere.^[91] Climate change can also cause methane releases from wetlands, marine systems, and freshwater systems.^[92] Overall, climate feedbacks are expected to become increasingly positive.^[93]